Navigating interconnected and electrified industries in the landscape of uncertainty : Exploring outcomes and values within circular solutions, and Swedish electricity supply and utilisation dynamics

Abstract

As the global community faces unprecedented climate change challenges, the transition towards a sustainable society has become an urgent priority. The complexity of this transition is characterised by the interplay of developing and implementing green manufacturing processes, integrated energy systems, and circular resource flows, and the inherent dynamics associated with geopolitical uncertainties, energy price fluctuations, and global instability. Although new technological advancements and more sustainable models are on the rise, a significant knowledge gap remains in comprehending the intricate dependencies and impacts of various uncertainties on complex industrial and energy systems. Dependency means that one component, subsystem, or variable relies on another for its operation or effectiveness. A change in one element will directly affect the other, causing changes in its status or actions. Because the components are interconnected in this way, they are not independent of each other. This knowledge gap is particularly noticeable in the lack of a comprehensive understanding of the interactions between the energy system and uncertainties. This became significantly more apparent during events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent Russian invasion of Ukraine. IntroductionAbundant, clean, and affordable energy is crucial for realising the vision of a modern, industrialised, and sustainable society (Tainter, 1988). Hence, a systemic shift towards a renewable and electrified energy system on a massive scale is necessary to achieve rapid emissions reductions (IPCC, 2023). If new energy demand and electric power capacity were instead built on fossil fuels rather than renewable sources, the consequences could be severe. This would worsen climate change, as electricity generation based on fossil fuels leads to ongoing emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. It could also entrench unsustainable infrastructure for an extended period, thereby prolonging the unsustainable reliance on limited fossil resources (IPCC, 2023). Furthermore, persisting reliance on fossil fuels could compromise energy security (Correlje & Van der Linde, 2006;Yergin, 2006).Transitioning to renewable energy sources can avert these risks, promoting a more self-reliant, sustainable, and secure energy future (IEA, 2022b). This involves adopting low-or zero-emission technologies and biogenic energy sources (Demirbas, 2009), curbing energy and material demand, modifying behavioural patterns, and enhancing efficiency. The diminishing carbon budget means that energy systems must quickly transition towards net-zero CO2 emissions by decreasing fossil fuel dependence, applying carbon capture, widespread electrification, utilising and improving energy conservation, efficiency, and energy system integration (IEA, 2022b(IEA, , 2023bIPCC, 2023).The growth of renewable energy is not just about increasing renewable electric power capacity and biogenic energy sources; rather, it is more about incorporating and coordinating multiple technol...