Negative correlation between power-law scaling and Hurst exponents in long-range connective sandpile models and real seismicity

Lee, Ya Ting; Chen, Chien Chih; Lin, Chai Yu; Ching, Sung

doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2011.10.009

Cited by 12 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Many natural phenomena show persistent behaviors, with Hurst exponent generally fluctuating around 0.73 20 . This holds true also for earthquakes 21 – 28 , even though some variability in the H value has been documented 6 , 29 – 31 . However, most of these studies focused on specific seismic episodes (e.g., seismic sequences) or examined the process taking into account short observation periods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 59%

Long-range dependence in earthquake-moment release and implications for earthquake occurrence probability

Barani

Mascandola

Riccomagno

et al. 2018

Sci Rep

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Since the beginning of the 1980s, when Mandelbrot observed that earthquakes occur on ‘fractal’ self-similar sets, many studies have investigated the dynamical mechanisms that lead to self-similarities in the earthquake process. Interpreting seismicity as a self-similar process is undoubtedly convenient to bypass the physical complexities related to the actual process. Self-similar processes are indeed invariant under suitable scaling of space and time. In this study, we show that long-range dependence is an inherent feature of the seismic process, and is universal. Examination of series of cumulative seismic moment both in Italy and worldwide through Hurst’s rescaled range analysis shows that seismicity is a memory process with a Hurst exponent H ≈ 0.87. We observe that H is substantially space- and time-invariant, except in cases of catalog incompleteness. This has implications for earthquake forecasting. Hence, we have developed a probability model for earthquake occurrence that allows for long-range dependence in the seismic process. Unlike the Poisson model, dependent events are allowed. This model can be easily transferred to other disciplines that deal with self-similar processes.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 59%

Long-range dependence in earthquake-moment release and implications for earthquake occurrence probability

Barani

Mascandola

Riccomagno

et al. 2018

Sci Rep

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“…As recently pointed out in Chen et al [17] and Lee et al [18], Hallgass et al [20] have introduced a self-affine model (SAM) for the seismicity that mimics the fault friction by means of two fractional Brownian profiles that slide one over the other. Since the roughness index, H , of the analyzed EM time series is ~0.7 H , the SAM predicts that the probability an EM pulse having an energy E should be denoted by ( )…”

Section: ( )mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2. Long-range connective sandpile (LRCS) models [16][17][18] predict a negative correlation between Hurst exponent H and a frequency-size power-law scaling exponent B (or the FD) for large system sizes, which seem to be consistent with studies of earthquake fault systems and real seismicity data [17][18][19][20]. Τhe B − values (and FD) typically reduce prior to large avalanches, which mimics the observed precursory phenomena of the Gutenberg -Richter b − values in real seismicity, while the H − values increase.…”

Section: ι Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Signatures of the self-affinity of fracture and faulting in pre-seismic electromagnetic emissions

Potirakis

Eftaxias

Balasis

et al. 2014

Preprint

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Of particular interest is the detection of precursors of an impending rupture. Theoretical, numerical studies along with laboratory experiments indicate that precursory signs of an impending failure are the sudden drop of fractal dimension and entropy, along with the anticorrelated, for large system sizes, rising of Hurst exponent and drop of a frequency-size power-law scaling exponent. Based on the widely accepted concept of the self-affine nature of faulting and fracture, we examine whether these precursory signs exist in the fracto-electromagnetic emissions resulting from the activation of a single fault.PACS number(s): 89.75. Da, 05.45.Tp, 61.43.Hv

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“…This process is similar to the dynamic process of the earthquake fault system, which repeats by reloading elastic strain energy and rebuilding correlation lengths towards criticality and the next large event [22][23][24]. For more details about the LRCS model, we refer readers to our previous papers [12][13][14][15].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The error bars show the 95% confidence intervals. The time occurrences for avalanches with s > 10 3.5 (black bars) are also shown[15].…”

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confidence: 99%

Quasi-periodicity of large avalanches in the long-range connective sandpile models and its implication in natural earthquakes

Lee

Chen

Lin

et al. 2014

EPL

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In this study, we investigated the quasi-periodicity of large avalanches using a new modification of sandpile models, i.e., the long-range connective sandpile (LRCS) model. The LRCS model considers the random distant connection between two separated, instead of neighboring, cells and shows interesting precursory behavior before large avalanches. We explore the statistics of recurrence intervals between large events and find a strong dependence on the size L of the sandpile. In the LRCS model, the average recurrence interval W of large avalanches follows the relationship W ∝ L 2.07. Having the recurrence intervals of many earthquake fault systems around the world, we propose an empirical rule between those intervals and the corresponding earthquakes' magnitudes and provide evidence of the quasi-periodic behavior of natural earthquakes.

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Negative correlation between power-law scaling and Hurst exponents in long-range connective sandpile models and real seismicity

Cited by 12 publications

References 33 publications

Long-range dependence in earthquake-moment release and implications for earthquake occurrence probability

Long-range dependence in earthquake-moment release and implications for earthquake occurrence probability

Signatures of the self-affinity of fracture and faulting in pre-seismic electromagnetic emissions

Quasi-periodicity of large avalanches in the long-range connective sandpile models and its implication in natural earthquakes

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