This study explores whether the broader context in which a city is located impacts the change in crime levels over the subsequent decade. This study uses a wide range of cities (those with a population of at least 10,000), over a long period of time (from 1970 to 2010). We test and find that although cities with larger population and those surrounded by a county with a larger population typically experience larger increases in crime over the subsequent decade, cities experiencing an increase in population during the current decade experience crime decreases.The study finds that cities with higher average income experience greater subsequent crime decreases, and those surrounded by counties with larger unemployment increases experience crime increases. Higher levels of income inequality and racial/ethnic heterogeneity are associated with increasing crime rates, and increasing inequality and racial/ethnic heterogeneity in the surrounding county are associated with further increases. Furthermore, this relationship has strengthened since 1970, suggesting that both scales of inequality are even more important from a public safety perspective. Finally, we tested the time invariance of these relationships, and showed that the magnitude of the relationship between city-level inequality and increasing crime has increased over the study period.Keywords: cities, crime, longitudinal, inequality, racial/ethnic heterogeneity.
Changing crime levels in cities
BioJohn R. Hipp is a Professor in the departments of Criminology, Law and Society, and Sociology, at the University of California Irvine. His research interests focus on how neighborhoods change over time, how that change both affects and is affected by neighborhood crime, and the role networks and institutions play in that change. He approaches these questions using quantitative methods as well as social network analysis. He has published substantive work in such journals as an outcome measure -in the form of changes to the built environment, shifting patterns of employment, or the socioeconomic composition of places -and links these to drivers of change including policy, structural economic shifts, or preferences for how we use and travel across urban space. An important characteristic of existing macro-level studies is that they have almost never focused on how the broader metropolitan context in which cities are located might impact changes in crime. That is to say, the focus is often placed either on variation in crime across counties or MSAs, or variation in crime across a set of large cities -in both cases omitting the simultaneous relationship between a city's crime rate and the characteristics of both the city and the region in which it is situated. This suggests a needed area of research given that the larger context of a region, and how it is changing, likely has consequences for the level of crime in cities within that region.In raising the question of the relationship between socio-demographic characteristics and crime rates of cities, and how the larg...