Neighborhood Dynamics with Unharmonized Longitudinal Data

Abstract

This article proposes a novel method for data-driven identification of spatiotemporal homogeneous regions and their dynamics, enabling the exploration of their composition and extents. Using a simple network representation, the method enables temporal regionalization without the need for geographical harmonization. To allow for a transparent corroboration of our method, we use it as a basis for an interactive and intuitive interface for the progressive exploration of the results. The interface guides the user through the original data, enabling both experts and nonexperts to characterize broad patterns of stability and change and identify detailed local processes. The proposed methodology is suitable for any region-based data, and we validate our method with illustrative scenarios from Chicago and Toronto, with results that match the established literature. The system is publicly available, with demographic data for over forty regions in the USA and Canada between 1970 and

A Markov model of urban evolution: Neighbourhood change as a complex process

“…Doing so is challenging because of data comparability issues. Recent advances have helped to overcome the challenge of changing definitions of neighbourhood borders [35] but changing variable definitions (i.e. in occupational or ethnic labels) remain a major obstacle.…”

“…The work of Delmelle (e.g., [34]) has moved the field forward decisively in these regards. Perhaps most importantly, this has occurred by making neighbourhoods' longer-term temporal trajectories the primary unit of analysis and adapting sequence analysis techniques from genomics (see also [35]). This work largely confirmed key substantive results from previous US studies regarding the main patterns of change.…”

“…Still, some research has used multivariate classification approaches to identify neighbourhood types in Toronto, such as Principal Component Analysis [3], Self Organizing Maps [61], or cluster analysis [35]. This and similar univariate work [58] tends to find that a three-part structure has largely persisted even amidst the city's ongoing transformations: a dense downtown core largely populated by young people and highly educated "creative class" professionals and aspirants; a traditional suburban areas with large single family homes often inhabited by members of Canada's historical Protestant elite, Toronto's main Jewish areas, as well as areas settled by newer Chinese immigrants; a relatively marginalized inner suburban areas in the Northeast and Northwest populated primarily by lower income non-white residents (in particular South Asian, Black, and Arab) along with older white, often Italian, working class communities.…”

“…Moreover, again in contrast to the few studies that have examined change across multivariate neighbourhood types (e.g. [35]), this nested approach allows us to study how neighbourhoods' positions within this structure shapes their trajectories of change. Finally, no prior studies of multivariate neighbourhood types of which we are aware have used Markov chains to predict neighbourhood trajectories in Toronto, study the spatial dependency of change across neighbourhood types, or as a basis for conducting counterfactual thought experiments to explore possible futures as informed by ideas from complexity theories of cites.…”

A Markov model of urban evolution: Neighbourhood change as a complex process

“…Still, some research has used multivariate classification approaches to identify neighbourhood types in Toronto, such as Principal Component Analysis [ 3 ], Self Organizing Maps [ 61 ], or cluster analysis [ 35 ]. This and similar univariate work [ 58 ] tends to find that a three-part structure has largely persisted even amidst the city’s ongoing transformations: a dense downtown core largely populated by young people and highly educated “creative class” professionals and aspirants; traditional suburban areas with large single family homes often inhabited by members of Canada’s historical Protestant elite, Toronto’s main Jewish areas, as well as areas settled by newer Chinese immigrants; a relatively marginalized inner suburban areas in the Northeast and Northwest populated primarily by lower income non-white residents (in particular South Asian, Black, and Arab) along with older white, often Italian, working class communities.…”