Neighborhood-scale air quality, public health, and equity implications of multi-modal vehicle electrification

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) constitute just a fraction of the current U.S. transportation fleet; however, EV market-share is surging. EV adoption reduces on-road transportation greenhouse gas emissions by decoupling transportation services from petroleum, but impacts on air quality and public health depend on the nature and location of vehicle usage and electricity generation. Here, we use a regulatory-grade chemical transport model and an electricity dispatch algorithm to characterize neighborhood-scale (~1 km) air quality and public health benefits and tradeoffs associated with a multi-modal EV transition. We focus on a Chicago-centric regional domain wherein 30% of the on-road transportation fleet is instantaneously electrified and changes in on-road, refueling, and power plant emissions are considered. We find decreases in annual population-weighted domain mean NO2 (-11.84%) and PM2.5 (-2.56%) with concentration reductions of up to-5.1 ppb and-0.97 µg m-3 in urban cores. Conversely, annual population-weighted domain mean MDA8O3 concentrations increase +0.65%, with notable intra-urban changes of up to +2.3 ppb. Despite mixed pollutant concentration outcomes, we find overall positive public health outcomes, largely driven by NO2 decreases that produce mortality reductions that are ~5 times greater in census tracts with disproportionately large non-white populations.