Neighborhood-scale air quality, public health, and equity implications of multi-modal vehicle electrification

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) constitute just a fraction of the current U.S. transportation fleet; however, EV market share is surging. EV adoption reduces on-road transportation greenhouse gas emissions by decoupling transportation services from petroleum, but impacts on air quality and public health depend on the nature and location of vehicle usage and electricity generation. Here, we use a regulatory-grade chemical transport model and a vehicle-to-electricity generation unit electricity assignment algorithm to characterize neighborhood-scale (∼1 km) air quality and public health benefits and tradeoffs associated with a multi-modal EV transition. We focus on a Chicago-centric regional domain wherein 30% of the on-road transportation fleet is instantaneously electrified and changes in on-road, refueling, and power plant emissions are considered. We find decreases in annual population-weighted domain mean NO2 (−11.83%) and PM2.5 (−2.46%) with concentration reductions of up to −5.1 ppb and −0.98 µg m−3 in urban cores. Conversely, annual population-weighted domain mean maximum daily 8 h average ozone (MDA8O3) concentrations increase +0.64%, with notable intra-urban changes of up to +2.3 ppb. Despite mixed pollutant concentration outcomes, we find overall positive public health outcomes, largely driven by NO2 concentration reductions that result in outsized mortality rate reductions for people of color, particularly for the Black populations within our domain.

All-Cause NO2-Attributable Mortality Burden and Associated Racial and Ethnic Disparities in the United States

“…Our use of census tract pollutant and health data enables us to capture wider and more representative variability in underlying population subgroup susceptibilities and associated disparities in NO 2 mortality burdens, a result which would otherwise be underrepresented if using county-, state-, or national-level data . Our results indicate that policies aimed at reducing NO x emissions such as those pertaining to the transportation sector , could reduce long-standing environmental injustices and motivate more stringent air quality standards.…”

Intraurban NO2 hotspot detection across multiple air quality products

“…Further, the consensus hotspot comprises an area that is majority Hispanic or Latino (54%; tables S1 and S2). Although the estimates from each data product, separately, are subject to concerns regarding potential sources of bias and noise, the consistency of results across data sources as well as the urgency of EJ-related health inequities suggests that this area should be prioritized for clean air interventions (Camilleri et al 2023, Visa et al 2023.…”

Emerging environmental justice issues at the intersection of transportation and electricity systems

“…Studies have demonstrated the potential for vehicle electrification to have significant air quality and health benefits. In particular, electrification of heavy-duty diesel vehicles, which are less efficient and more polluting than light-duty vehicles, is expected to reduce air pollution and health impacts in some regions [31][32][33]. However, in regions with significant coal generation, electrification may result in an increase in air quality and health damages.…”