Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparison over the Italian Territory

Zuccolo, Elisa; Vaccari, Franco; Peresan, Antonella; Panza, G. F.

doi:10.1007/s00024-010-0151-8

Cited by 81 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…2. Modern seismic hazard analysis methods based on the extended use of waveform modelling techniques (NDSHA) or scenario-based SHA can provide a meaningful alternative to PSHA for engineering needs in developing a robust seismic design basis for critical infrastructures [11]. 3.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These methods are based on incorporating advanced and realistic seismic waveform modelling. Frequently they are summarized under the name of neo-deterministic seismic hazard analysis method (NDSHA) [11] or in case of site evaluations for critical infrastructures as scenario-based method [12]. They provide a meaningful alternative or complementary method to the currently used seismic design procedures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Earthquake engineering needs and seismic hazard assessment

Klügel¹,

Mualchin²

2013

WIT Transactions on the Built Environment

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We present a detailed discussion on the needs of hazard assessment for different applications of earthquake engineering and risk assessment. This discussion includes design and risk assessment issues. We define the requested information from seismic hazard analysis as an input to a meaningful and economical engineering analysis. This provides the basis for a detailed review of the main methods of contemporary seismic hazard analysis: (1) traditional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) as used in building codes of many countries, (2) scenario-based seismic hazard analysis or neo-deterministic seismic hazard analysis (NDSHA) as the principal alternative, and (3) the state of the art physics-based deterministic method.We demonstrate that only the physics-and scenario-based seismic hazard analysis method that combines (a) contemporary seismic waveform modelling, (b) an in-depth geological and seismo-tectonic analysis of the region of interest, and (c) empirical information is able to provide the complete set of input information for economical earthquake engineering analysis that allows to combine improved seismic performance of both the structures and components with reasonable design costs. We show that the scenario-based seismic hazard method can easily be adapted/extended for risk assessment as required in assurance applications by developing state of the art probabilistic data models that are in compliance with observational data assembled in earthquake catalogues.The paper includes a practical example of the scenario-based approach for the development of the design basis of a critical infrastructure and the risk assessment for a seismically induced production loss of a nuclear power plant located in Switzerland.We recommend that DSHA and NDSHA must be used for engineering design. When/if PSHA is required based on national regulations, it is highly recommended to compare the results/output of PSHA results with that of physics-and scenario-based analysis or NDSHA maps.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earthquake engineering needs and seismic hazard assessment

Klügel¹,

Mualchin²

2013

WIT Transactions on the Built Environment

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“…The PSHA map, forming the basis for the Italian building code, predicts PGA to be less than 0.175 times the acceleration of gravity (g), whereas the NDSHA map predicts values in the range 0.20-0.35g, in good agreement with the observed motion that exceeded 0.25g. Comparison between PSHA and NDSHA estimates in terms of macroseismic intensity in Zuccolo et al [7] indicates that the epicentral area of the Emilia earthquake is in a zone where PSHA predicted an intensity (as low as VIII on the modified Mercalli scale) at least one unit less than the NDSHA prediction, the latter of which is closer to the actual intensity of the earthquake. A single case study obviously cannot be considered a rigorous testing of the two methods, therefore a more systematic test is performed in Nekrasova et al [6].…”

Section: Comparison Of the Ndsha Psha Seismic Hazard Maps And Real Smentioning

confidence: 94%

Earthquake recurrence and seismic hazard assessment: a comparative analysis over the Italian territory

Peresan¹,

Magrin²,

Nekrasova³

et al. 2013

WIT Transactions on the Built Environment

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Rigorous and objective testing of seismic hazard assessments against real seismic activity are a necessary precondition for any responsible seismic risk assessment. The reference hazard maps for the Italian seismic code, obtained with the classical probabilistic approach (PSHA) and the alternative ground shaking maps based on the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA) are crosscompared and tested against the real seismicity for the territory of Italy. NDSHA is a methodology that allows for the sound definition of credible scenario events, based on the realistic physical modelling of ground motion from a wide set of possible earthquakes. The flexibility of NDSHA permits to account for earthquake recurrence and allows for the generation of ground motion maps at specified return periods that permits a straightforward comparison between the NDSHA and the PSHA maps.

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“…Its advocates [4][5][6][7] collect arguments topped by the fact that every earthquake is associated with a fault, tectonic structure, the geometry of which together with the acting stress eld determine the plane of the slip and the slip direction, in other words the mechanism of the earthquake. The mechanism is the crucial factor ruling the seismic energy radiation as for its spatial distribution.…”

Section: Neo-deterministic Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismic stability of the survey areas of potential sites for the deep geological repository of the spent nuclear fuel

2017

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This paper deals with the seismic stability of the survey areas of potential sites for the deep geological repository of the spent nuclear fuel in the Czech Republic. The basic source of data for historical earthquakes up to 1990 was the seismic website [10]. The most intense earthquake described occurred on September 15, 1590 in the Niederroesterreich region (Austria) in the historical period; its reported intensity is Io = 8-9. The source of the contemporary seismic data for the period since 1991 to the end of 2014 was the website [11]. It may be stated based on the databases and literature review that in the period from 1900, no earthquake exceeding magnitude 5.1 originated in the territory of the Czech Republic. In order to evaluate seismicity and to assess the impact of seismic e ects at depths of hypothetical deep geological repository for the next time period, the neo-deterministic method was selected as an extension of the probabilistic method. Each one out of the seven survey areas were assessed by the neo-deterministic evaluation of the seismic wave-eld excited by selected individual events and determining the maximum loading. Results of seismological databases studies and neodeterministic analysis of Čihadlo locality are presented.

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Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparison over the Italian Territory

Cited by 81 publications

References 21 publications

Earthquake engineering needs and seismic hazard assessment

Earthquake engineering needs and seismic hazard assessment

Earthquake recurrence and seismic hazard assessment: a comparative analysis over the Italian territory

Seismic stability of the survey areas of potential sites for the deep geological repository of the spent nuclear fuel

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