Net Migration Estimation in an Extended, Multiregional Gravity Model*

Abstract

A multi-regional framework is developed in order to analyze net migration over time to all 10 Canadian provinces within an integrated system of equations. "An extended gravity model is the basis for the equation specification and the use of constrained econometric estimation techniques allows for the provincial interdependence of the migration decision while at the same time ensuring that an important system-wide requirement is respected." The model is estimated using official Canadian data for the 1960s and 1970s. "The results suggest the predominance of the push factor for interprovincial migration for most provinces, although net migration to the Atlantic provinces is also shown to be subject to pull forces from the rest of the country." The effects of wage rate variables, unemployment, and political disturbances in Quebec on inter-provincial migration are noted.

Reverse-fitting the gravity model to inter-city airline passenger flows by an algebraic simplification

“…Over the past few decades, variants of the gravity model for context and domain specific applications have been developed. Today, the gravity model is widely used in many disciplines, including planning, geography, and regional science (Wilson, 1967(Wilson, , 1974Isard (1975); McFadden (1978); Anderson, 1979;Haynes and Fotheringham, 1984;Fotheringham and O'Kelly, 1989;Lowe and Sen, 1996;Mikkonen and Luoma, 1999), transportation (Hyman, 1969;Evans, 1971;Evans, 1976;Erlander and Stewart, 1990), demographics (Plane, 1984;Foot and Milne, 1984), trade (Bergstrand, 1985(Bergstrand, , 1989Deardorff, 1998), and marketing (Huff, 1964;Huff and Rust, 1984), to name a few. The general gravity model commonly used in spatial interaction analysis and transportation planning takes the form:…”

Requiem for the Net Migrant

“…Several scholars have identified the weakness of net migration as a measure of geographical mobility (Lieberson 1979;Morrison 1977; Rogers 1976); nevertheless, one continues to find numerous recent articles in respected journals that incorporate this flawed measure in sophisticated econometric modeling exercises seeking to identify the socioeconomic determinants of interregional migration (Dunlevy and Bellante 1983; Foot and Milne 1984; Greenwood, Hunt, and McDowell 1986; Izraeli and Lin 1984; Milne, Foot, and Dungan 1985;Tabuchi 1988). …”

Joint Effects of Personal Factors and Ecological Variables on the Interprovincial Migration Pattern of Young Adults in Canada: A Nested Logit Analysis

“…The former perspective treats the migration process as an adjustment mechanism in a system of regions and usually leads to the use of net migration volume or rate as a measure of the migration process (for example, see Foot and Milne 1984). The latter perspective recognizes explicitly that migrations are the results of separate decisions by numerous individuals, none of whom can be identified as a "net migrant."…”