Network models to evaluate vaccine strategies towards herd immunity in COVID-19

Tetteh, Josephine N.A.; Nguyen, Van Kính; Hernandez‐Vargas, Esteban A.

doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110894

Cited by 41 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…As we did not consider vulnerable versus non-vulnerable nodes in our network, this vaccination strategy defaults to be the same as a random vaccination strategy. Another possible vaccination strategy is the so-called “ring vaccination” strategy, whereby neighbors of a node that has been identified to have the disease are vaccinated first 55 . While this is an interesting concept, Tetteh et al 55 assume that individuals who have had the disease cannot get re-infected and are therefore likely over-estimating the vaccination requirements for herd immunity.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Another possible vaccination strategy is the so-called “ring vaccination” strategy, whereby neighbors of a node that has been identified to have the disease are vaccinated first 55 . While this is an interesting concept, Tetteh et al 55 assume that individuals who have had the disease cannot get re-infected and are therefore likely over-estimating the vaccination requirements for herd immunity. While our model results account for possible re-infections, we do assume that vaccinated individuals maintain lasting immunity.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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COVID-19 vaccination strategies depend on the underlying network of social interactions

Saunders

Schwartz

2021

Sci Rep

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Since the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, different mitigation and management strategies limiting economic and social activities have been implemented across many countries. Despite these strategies, the virus continues to spread and mutate. As a result, vaccinations are now administered to suppress the pandemic. Current COVID-19 epidemic models need to be expanded to account for the change in behaviour of new strains, such as an increased virulence and higher transmission rate. Furthermore, models need to account for an increasingly vaccinated population. We present a network model of COVID-19 transmission accounting for different immunity and vaccination scenarios. We conduct a parameter sensitivity analysis and find the average immunity length after an infection to be one of the most critical parameters that define the spread of the disease. Furthermore, we simulate different vaccination strategies and show that vaccinating highly connected individuals first is the quickest strategy for controlling the disease.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 vaccination strategies depend on the underlying network of social interactions

Saunders

Schwartz

2021

Sci Rep

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“…Vaccination Since the start of vaccination campaigns, several models have been proposed in literature that take into account the effect of vaccines on the spread of the virus [6,[15][16][17]. Most of these works focus specifically on vaccinations, analysing how different vaccination rates impact the number of cases and studying the relationship between vaccine efficacy and number of administered vaccines, in order to determine if heard immunity can be achieved given a set of policies.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Hybrid Compartmental Model with a Case Study of COVID-19 in Great Britain and Israel

Malaspina¹,

Racković²,

Valdeira³

2022

Preprint

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Given the severe impact of COVID-19 on several societal levels, it is of crucial importance to model the impact of restriction measures on the pandemic evolution, so that governments are able to take informed decisions. Even though there have been countless attempts to propose diverse models since the raise of the outbreak, the increase in data availability and start of vaccination campaigns calls for updated models and studies. Furthermore, most of the works are focused on a very particular place or application and we strive to attain a more general model, resorting to data from different countries. In particular, we compare Great Britain and Israel, two highly different scenarios in terms of vaccination plans and social structure. We build a network-based model, complex enough to model different scenarios of government-mandated restrictions, but generic enough to be applied to any population. To ease the computational load we propose a decomposition strategy for our model.

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“…Remark 4. Only 4 of the 6 equations in (16) are linearly independent, since y v,s +y v,i +y v,q = v and y n,s +y n,i +y n,q = 1−v.…”

Section: A Mean-field Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Polarized Temporal Network Model to Study the Spread of Recurrent Epidemic Diseases in a Partially Vaccinated Population

Frieswijk¹,

Zino²,

Cao³

2022

Preprint

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Motivated by massive outbreaks of COVID-19 that occurred even in populations with high vaccine uptake, we propose a novel multi-population temporal network model for the spread of recurrent epidemic diseases. We study the effect of human behavior, testing, and vaccination campaigns on the control of local outbreaks and infection prevalence. Our modeling framework decouples the vaccine effectiveness in protecting against transmission and the development of severe symptoms. Furthermore, the framework accounts for the polarizing effect of the decision to vaccinate and captures homophily, i.e., the tendency of people to interact with like-minded individuals. By means of a mean-field approach, we analytically derive the epidemic threshold. Our theoretical results suggest that, while vaccination campaigns reduce pressure on hospitals, they might facilitate resurgent outbreaks, highlighting the key role that testing campaigns may have in eradicating the disease. Numerical simulations are then employed to confirm and extend our theoretical findings to more realistic scenarios. Our numerical and analytical results agree that vaccination is not sufficient to achieve full eradication, without employing massive testing campaigns or relying on the population's responsibility. Furthermore, we show that homophily plays a critical role in the control of local outbreaks, highlighting the peril of a polarized network structure.

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Network models to evaluate vaccine strategies towards herd immunity in COVID-19

Cited by 41 publications

References 70 publications

COVID-19 vaccination strategies depend on the underlying network of social interactions

COVID-19 vaccination strategies depend on the underlying network of social interactions

A Hybrid Compartmental Model with a Case Study of COVID-19 in Great Britain and Israel

A Polarized Temporal Network Model to Study the Spread of Recurrent Epidemic Diseases in a Partially Vaccinated Population

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