Neural-Based Ensembles for Particulate Matter Forecasting

Abstract

The air pollution caused by particulate matter (PM) has become a public health issue due to the risks to human life and the environment. The PM concentration in the air causes haze and affects the lungs and the heart, leading to reduced visibility, allergic reactions, pneumonia, asthma, cardiopulmonary diseases, lung cancer, and even death. In this context, the development of systems for monitoring, forecasting, and controlling emissions plays an important role. The literature about forecasting systems based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) ensembles has been highlighted regarding statistical accuracy and efficiency. In this article, trainable and non-trainable combination methods are used for PM 10 and PM 2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 and 2.5 micrometers, respectively) time series forecasting for eight different locations, in Finland and Brazil, for different periods. Trainable ensembles based on ANNs, linear regression, and Copulas are compared with non-trainable combinations (mean and median), single ANNs, and linear statistical approaches. Different models are considered so far, including Autoregressive model (AR), Autoregressive and Moving Average Model (ARMA), Infinite Impulse Response Filters (IIR), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Radial Basis Function Networks (RBF), Extreme Learning Machines (ELM), Echo State Networks (ESN), and Adaptive Network Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The use of ANNs ensembles, mainly combined with MLP, leads to a better one step ahead forecasting performance. The use of robust air pollution forecasting tools is prime to assist governments in managing air pollution issues like hospital collapse during adverse air quality situations. In this sense, our study is indirectly related to the following United Nations sustainable development goals: SDG 3 -good health and well-being and SDG 11 -sustainable cities and communities.INDEX TERMS Forecasting, particulate matter, artificial neural networks, ensemble.

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