Pineal parenchymal volume (PPV) reduction is one of the predisposing factors for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Therefore, PPV could be used as a predictor of developing AD in clinical settings. We investigated whether PPV in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) was correlated with conversion of these patients to AD. Methods: A total of 237 patients with MCI underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging. A two-sample t-test was used to compare PPV at baseline in MCI patients who converted to AD (MCI-C) with those who did not convert (MCI-NC). Logistic regression analysis with forced entry was used to identify predictors of AD, with variables of PPV, age, sex, education, APOE-ε4 alleles, Mini Mental State Examination score, and total intracranial volume at baseline. Two-way repeated-measures analysis of variance was conducted to compare PPV at baseline and at the last examination in the MCI-C and MCI-NC groups. Results: PPV in the MCI-C group was significantly lower than that in the MCI-NC group. In logistic regression analysis, two independent predictors of AD were identified: Mini Mental State Examination and PPV. Two-way repeatedmeasures analysis of variance revealed a significant group effect, but no time effect. Conclusion: The pineal volume is a predictor of AD conversion, and pineal volume reduction in AD starts early when patients are still in the MCI stage. Thus, pineal volume reduction might be useful as a predictor of developing AD in clinical settings.