Successful social interactions depend on people's ability to predict others' future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others' current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others' future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others' emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others' future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1-3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants' ratings of emotion transitions predicted others' experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation-valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind-inform participants' mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants' accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone.emotion | experience-sampling | social cognition | theory of mind H umans must navigate a wide variety of stimuli in everyday life, ranging from apples and oranges to automobiles and computer operating systems. However, other humans are perhaps the most consequential stimuli of all, potentially driving the very evolution of the human brain (1). Despite the dazzling array of actions and internal states of which humans are capable, people are remarkably good at understanding each other (2-4). Indeed, the social mind appears particularly attuned to the problem of predicting other people (5). Perceivers make use of a wide variety of perceptible cues-including social context, facial expression, and tone of voiceto infer what emotions others' are feeling (6-8), likely because emotions predict behavior (9, 10). However, these perceptual mechanisms only get us so far: we cannot see what expression our friend will wear next week, nor hear tomorrow's tone of voice. How might we make social predictions beyond the immediate future? Such foresight could convey significant strategic advantages: in the social domain, as in the game of chess (11), success may depend on the depth and breadth of a player's search through others' possible future moves. Here we propose that people use a powerful mechanism for gain...