Neural network model for imprecise regression with interval dependent variables

Abstract

We propose a new iterative method using machine learning algorithms to fit an imprecise regression model to data that consist of intervals rather than point values. The method is based on a single-layer interval neural network which can be trained to produce an interval prediction. It seeks parameters for the optimal model that minimize the mean squared error between the actual and predicted interval values of the dependent variable using a first-order gradient-based optimization and interval analysis computations to model the measurement imprecision of the data. The method captures the relationship between the explanatory variables and a dependent variable by fitting an imprecise regression model, which is linear with respect to unknown interval parameters even the regression model is nonlinear. We consider the explanatory variables to be precise point values, but the measured dependent values are characterized by interval bounds without any probabilistic information. Thus, the imprecision is modeled non-probabilistically even while the scatter of dependent values is modeled probabilistically by homoscedastic Gaussian distributions. The proposed iterative method estimates the lower and upper bounds of the expectation region, which is an envelope of all possible precise regression lines obtained by ordinary regression analysis based on any configuration of real-valued points from the respective intervals and their x-values.

Imprecise Bayesian Neural Networks

“…Recently, emphasis has been placed on discerning between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties [44,30,27]. In [48], the authors present an IP-based neural network which uses a regression technique based on probability intervals. Contrary to IBNNs, their NN is rooted in the frequentist approach to imprecise probabilities [22].…”