Background
In contrast to many observational studies, women in the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) trial randomised to oestrogen-alone had lower invasive breast cancer incidence than those assigned placebo. Influence of oestrogen use on breast cancer mortality has not been reported.
Methods
Between 1993 and 1998, the WHI enrolled 10,739 postmenopausal women from 40 US centres into a randomized, double-masked, placebo-controlled trial evaluating oral conjugated equine oestrogen (0·625 mg/d). Women aged 50–79 years with prior hysterectomy, anticipated 3-year survival, and mammography clearance were randomized by a computerized, permuted block algorithm, stratified by age group and centre, to receive oestrogen or matching placebo. The trial was terminated early, in 2004, for an adverse effect on stroke. In extended follow-up through August 2009, we assessed long-term effects of oestrogen use on invasive breast cancer incidence, tumor characteristics, and mortality. Cox regression models were used to estimate intention-to-treat hazard ratios [HRs].
Findings
After a median 11.8 (interquartile range [IQR], 9·1 to 12·9) years of follow-up, conjugated equine oestrogen-alone use for a median of 5·9 (IQR, 2·5 to 7·3) years was associated with lower invasive breast cancer incidence compared to placebo (151 vs. 199 breast cancers; annualized rates, 0·27% vs. 0·35%; HR, 0·77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0·62 to 0·95; P=0·02) with no difference (P=0·76) between intervention-phase (HR, 0·79; 95% CI, 0·61 to 1·02) and post-intervention effects (HR, 0·75; 95% CI: 0·51 to 1·09) ). Potential effect modification by benign breast disease (P=0·01) and family history of breast cancer (P=0·02) was observed. In the oestrogen-alone group fewer women died from breast cancer (6 vs.16 deaths; annualized rates 0·009% vs. 0·024%; HR, 0·37; 95% CI, 0·13 to 0·91; P=0.03) and fewer died from all causes after a breast cancer diagnosis (30 vs. 50 deaths; annualized rates, 0·046% vs. 0·076%; HR, 0·62; 95% CI, 0·39 to 0·9;, P=0·04).
Interpretation
Women with hysterectomy seeking relief of climacteric symptoms may be given reassurance regarding breast cancer influence of oestrogen use consistent with durations observed in this trial. However, these findings do not support oestrogen use for breast cancer risk reduction since this benefit may not apply to populations at higher risk.
Funding
US National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute. Wyeth provided study medications.