New Estimation Rules for Unknown Parameters on Holt-Winters Multiplicative Method

Hansun, Seng

doi:10.5614/j.math.fund.sci.2017.49.2.3

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…To mention, Backcasting [23], Bayesian methods combined with an average of the available data [24,25,26], regression based procedure [27] are few other methods to estimate. Accurate estimates of initial conditions can result in better forecasting results [28,29]. The estimation procedure for initial conditions used in this paper is of the Hyndman and Athanasopoulos [17].…”

Section: The Initial Valuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Holt-Winters Forecast on Seasonal Time Series Crop Insurance Data with Structural Outliers (2000-2018) Using Ms Excel

Priyanka

Nandakumar²,

Sangeetha³

2022

AJAEES

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Time series data on the number of farmers enrolled in different crop insurance schemes such as NAIS, MNAIS and PMFBY in the state of Tamil Nadu, India was analysed for its seasonality, outliers and forecast. The data was found to be seasonal and exponentially increasing. Seasonality is innate as the crop insurance itself was registered separately for two seasons (Kharif and Rabi). Multiplicative Holt-Winters Model should be applied in order to do short range forecast for an exponentially increasing dataset. The model was run in Ms-Excel in order to understand the basics of times series forecasting. Minimum MSE value was the criteria used to find the better fitting smoothing values. The residual of the model was examined for the fit of the model. Residual mean value was close to zero. Residuals are tested for autocorrelation with Durbin-Watson test and Runs test. Histogram of residuals implies a normal distribution. Presence of outliers are detected using 3IQR method and the identified outliers are part of the structure of data and need not be removed. However, alternate models of Holt-Winters itself which are robust to work with outliers are reviewed and RHW model of Gelpers et al. [1] was suggested.

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Section: The Initial Valuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Holt-Winters Forecast on Seasonal Time Series Crop Insurance Data with Structural Outliers (2000-2018) Using Ms Excel

Priyanka

Nandakumar²,

Sangeetha³

2022

AJAEES

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“…In this study, a modified approach to the Holt-Winters' additive method is applied. Holt-Winters (HW) is one of the most commonly used methods in the exponential smoothing family (Hansun, 2017). In 2019, Hansun et al (2019) proposed new formulas for finding the initial values in the HW additive method.…”

Section: Data Source and Applied Algorithmmentioning

confidence: 99%

A tuned Holt-Winters white-box model for COVID-19 prediction

Hansun

Charles

Gherman

et al. 2021

IJMDM

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The year 2020 has become memorable the moment the novel COVID-19 spread massively around the world to become a pandemic. In this paper, we analyse and predict the future trend of the COVID-19 cases for the top ten countries with the highest number of confirmed cases to date and the top ten countries with the highest growth percentage within the last month. Since many recent works have proposed that the COVID-19 pattern follows an exponential distribution, we use a tuned approach to the Holt-Winters' additive method as a white-box model. Based on the analysis, we found that most of the countries are still presenting an increasing trend of confirmed cases in the near future. Apart from vaccine and drug development, measures such as vigilance, strategic governmental actions, public awareness, and social distancing are unarguably continuously needed to handle the spreading of COVID-19 and avoid the next wave of the outbreak.

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“…Perbedaan atau kesalahan (error) tersebut diabsolutkan dan diubah dalam bentuk persen. Hasil rata-rata (mean) dari persentase tersebut merupakan nilai MAPE (Hansun, 2017). Nilai perhitungan peramalan dapat dikatakan mempunyai tingkat akurasi baik jika berada di antara 0 hingga 20% (Syahromi & Sumitra, 2019…”

Section: Analisis Keakuratan Modelunclassified

Pemanfaatan Metode Association Rules dan Holt-Winter Multiplicative untuk Meningkatkan Peluang Penjualan Obat Pertanian

Setiawan

Sediyono

Sembiring

2020

J. Sistem Info. Bisnis

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The competition level between companies on executing product marketing is rapidly increasing, so the companies have to understand the importance of correlation between external environments of company with consumer’s needs. One of the efforts that can be done is by utilizing data warehouse and the application of infrastructure in information and technology field. This research combined Association Rules method to extracting pattern and finding every possibility that potential to increase sales and Holt-Winter Multiplicative method to estimate the alteration of trend on the seasonal data. After passed through data processing process by using RapidMiner tools, information that consists of correlation pattern between rule that describe the comparison of product and the sales working area and season that affects the product sale. The pattern used by company to know which product is often purchased by customer. Besides that, this research produces changing trend data of PT ABC’s product that generated by result of previous data comparison with forecast data. Based on value of error rate Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in estimating forecast result on the PT ABC’s sales transaction data during 3 years, it shows good level of accuracy. Result of data test, by considering rule that formed and forecast result so the company can control and manage product in order to avoid incorrect sales. This thing will effect on repression of operational cost and PT ABC can identify available opportunities to increase sale of agricultural medicine.

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New Estimation Rules for Unknown Parameters on Holt-Winters Multiplicative Method

Cited by 8 publications

References 13 publications

Holt-Winters Forecast on Seasonal Time Series Crop Insurance Data with Structural Outliers (2000-2018) Using Ms Excel

Holt-Winters Forecast on Seasonal Time Series Crop Insurance Data with Structural Outliers (2000-2018) Using Ms Excel

A tuned Holt-Winters white-box model for COVID-19 prediction

Pemanfaatan Metode Association Rules dan Holt-Winter Multiplicative untuk Meningkatkan Peluang Penjualan Obat Pertanian

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