New Flood Early Warning and Forecasting Method Based on Similarity Theory

Abstract

The challenge of achieving reliable flood forecasting results in semiarid regions remains stark. We developed a flood early warning and forecasting method based on similarity theory and a hydrological model to extend the lead time and achieve dynamic rolling forecasting. A multimeasure-based rainfall event similarity analysis (MRESA) method was proposed for rainfall forecasting based on the similarity evaluation between two rainstorms from multiple perspectives (including the quantity similarity, pattern similarity, earth mover's distance, and rainstorm spatial distribution similarity). Moreover, an ideal sample experiment was conducted to verify the method's rationality and feasibility. The MRSA method for rainfall prediction and the vertically mixed runoff model were applied to the Beiniuchuan River located in the middle Yellow River basin. Results showed that the flood forecast would be continuously updated and the prediction accuracy gradually increases with the increase of rainstorm and flood information. Therefore, in this study the proposed flood forecasting method based on the similarity analysis is effective and applicable.

Streamflow and Sediment Declines in a Loess Hill and Gully Landform Basin Due to Climate Variability and Anthropogenic Activities

“…2 Controlling area ratio of warping dam represents the ratio of the control area of effective warping dam to the corresponding water erosion area. 3 Composite coverage = forest/pasture coverage of erosion-prone area + (terrace area + warping dam land area)/erosion-prone area.…”

“…Environmental changes caused by climate variability and anthropogenic activities affect the hydrological processes, with two important indicators of changes in streamflow and sediment runoff [1][2][3][4][5]. In most of the watersheds in North China, water resource availability is low because the water demand in arid areas is far greater than the amount of water available [6][7][8][9][10].…”

“…This was likely the main cause of the anomalous flood season in 2013. Shengli Reservoir is located in the upper reaches of Yunyan River (Figure 1), with a total storage capacity of 5.82 million m 3 . It was built in 1959 and was full of sediment in 1970.…”

Multicriteria assessment framework of flood events simulated with vertically mixed runoff model in semiarid catchments in the middle Yellow River

“…The maximum and minimum areas of the catchments are 1989 and 8706 km 2 , respectively. The average an- nual temperature ranges from 6 to 14 • C. The average annual precipitation ranges from 1010 to 1150 mm, and 65 % to 80 % is concentrated in summer Li and Huang, 2017;Xiao et al, 2019). The rainfall is generally characterized by high intensity and short duration.…”

“…A trend towards a warmer climate has increased the global incidence of intense precipitation events. Arid and semiarid regions, i.e., areas where the annual rainfall is less than 250 and 250-500 mm a −1 , respectively, are particularly vulnerable to this change in climate (Khomsi et al, 2016;Yatheendradas et al, 2008). More than 50 % of flood-related casualties occur in these regions worldwide (Brito and Evers, 2016).…”