New future perspectives through constructive conflict: Exploring the future of gas in the Netherlands

Abstract

This paper reports on the refinement of constructive conflict methodology (CCM) combining Q methodology and stakeholder dialogue workshops for gas futures for the Netherlands. Since the end of the 1950s, natural gas exploration and exploitation has been a major focus of the Dutch energy policy. Discussions about the future of energy in the Netherlands tend to focus either on pro-gas or pro-renewable energy. Using Q methodology we have constructed more nuanced perspectives on the future of energy in the Netherlands. We used these perspectives in a stakeholder dialogue, in which the participants further detailed the perspectives and discussed future policy options. Analysis of the outcomes of this process teaches us that the Netherlands remain gas-focused, that renewable energy sources are as much a dogma as nuclear power was in the 1960s, and that the prospect of an austere future is a non-debatable issue. From a methodological perspective it can be concluded that the refined methodology contributed to diversity in views, opened up the dominant discourse and led to learning among participating stakeholders.

Analysing the Role of Visions, Agency, and Niches in Historical Transitions in Watershed Management in the Lower Mississippi River

“…Emerging visions are usually rooted in entirely different beliefs, values and mental frameworks initially not shared by larger groups in society [13]. Such visions are typically associated with outsiders, who are likely to conduct rule-breaking behaviour [54,55], because they pursue divergent and sometimes marginal perspectives [56]. Learning is key to vision development and niche formation [13], but our focus is more on the interaction of visions and actors in niches and less on learning processes and knowledge.…”

Incorporating stakeholder perspectives into model-based scenarios: Exploring the futures of the Dutch gas sector

“…A detailed description of this model and the data used for quantification can be found in (Eker 2016). Ligtvoet et al (2016) have identified six perspectives that describe what several aspects of the Dutch energy system are expected to look like in the next fifty years according to the key stakeholders in the sector. They consider these perspectives as qualitative exploratory scenarios that describe visions on the future of the energy system.…”

“…More nuanced perspectives focusing on economic conditions or uncertainty have also been uncovered. A brief summary of these perspectives is presented in Table 1, while a more extended description of perspective narratives can be found in (Ligtvoet et al 2016).…”

“…Our study originates from a research program that involved two projects to develop robust strategies for the Dutch gas sector. One of the projects adopted a 'formal' scenario approach and used a simulation model to explore multiple possible futures (Eker 2016), whereas the other project followed an 'intuitive' scenario approach to identify the stakeholder perspectives about the future of the Dutch gas and energy sector (Ligtvoet et al 2016). In this paper, we use the problem-specific stakeholder perspectives identified by Ligtvoet et al (2016) to be incorporated into model-based scenarios and to form a basis for policy-oriented foresight.…”

“…In the remainder of the paper, Section 2 provides a brief overview of the Dutch gas sector, the model used to explore possible futures and the stakeholder perspectives identified by Ligtvoet et al (2016). Section 3 describes the method of incorporating the qualitative stakeholder perspectives into a quantitative model-based analysis.…”