Abstract. Arid and semiarid ecosystems contain relatively high
species diversity and are subject to intense use, in particular extensive
cattle grazing, which has favored the expansion and encroachment of
perennial thorny shrubs into the grasslands, thus decreasing the value of
the rangeland. However, these environments have been shown to positively
impact global carbon dynamics. Machine learning and remote sensing have
enhanced our knowledge about carbon dynamics, but they need to be further
developed and adapted to particular analysis. We measured the net ecosystem
exchange (NEE) of C with the eddy covariance (EC) method and estimated gross primary production (GPP)
in a thorny scrub at Bernal in Mexico. We tested the agreement between EC
estimates and remotely sensed GPP estimates from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and also with two
alternative modeling methods: ordinary-least-squares (OLS) regression and ensembles of machine learning algorithms (EMLs). The variables used
as predictors were MODIS spectral
bands, vegetation indices and products, and gridded environmental
variables. The Bernal site was a carbon sink even though it was overgrazed, the
average NEE during 15 months of 2017 and 2018 was −0.78 gCm-2d-1, and the flux was negative or neutral during the measured months.
The probability of agreement (θs) represented the agreement between
observed and estimated values of GPP across the range of measurement.
According to the mean value of θs, agreement was higher for the EML
(0.6) followed by OLS (0.5) and then MODIS (0.24). This graphic metric was
more informative than r2 (0.98, 0.67, 0.58, respectively) to evaluate
the model performance. This was particularly true for MODIS because the
maximum θs of 4.3 was for measurements of 0.8 gCm-2d-1
and then decreased steadily below 1 θs for measurements above 6.5 gCm-2d-1 for this scrub vegetation. In the case of EML and OLS,
the θs was stable across the range of measurement. We used an EML
for the Ameriflux site US-SRM, which is similar in vegetation and climate,
to predict GPP at Bernal, but θs was low (0.16), indicating the local
specificity of this model. Although cacti were an important component of the
vegetation, the nighttime flux was characterized by positive NEE,
suggesting that the photosynthetic dark-cycle flux of cacti was lower than
ecosystem respiration. The discrepancy between MODIS and EC GPP estimates
stresses the need to understand the limitations of both methods.