New insights into the Edwards Aquifer—Brackish-water simulation, drought, and the role of uncertainty analysis

Abstract

• Uncertainty analysis provided insights as to the reliability of the model inputs and model results.• Brackish water is not expected to move appreciably toward production wells near the transition zone interface if a repeat of drought-of-record conditions occurs.• The model is reliable for predicting brackish-water movement near production wells.• The model is not reliable for predicting Bexar County index well J-17 water levels or for predicting flows at Comal and San Marcos Springs.• Many hydraulic properties of the Edwards aquifer, as well as recharge to the aquifer, remain highly uncertain, even after the model has been calibrated.