New outlooks in traceability and consistency of integrated scenarios

Abstract

This paper proposes two criteria to assess and compare the quality of (integrated) scenarios, namely scenario traceability and scenario consistency. From a futures research perspective, both are identified as being central challenges to scenario quality. Traceability is a recognized standard of scenario communication but difficult to achieve in practice. Consistency, simultaneously a construction principle and a constitutive element of scenarios, is not easy to accomplish either. Integrated scenario methodologies, i.e., those approaches combining, e.g., 'story and simulation' (SAS), are especially challenged by both issues. In this paper, scenario traceability and scenario consistency are more precisely defined and operationalized to allow for qualitative measurement, assessment and comparisons of different (integrated) scenario methodologies and their resulting socioenvironmental scenarios. The criteria are applied empirically to new forms of integrated scenario methodologies. They serve to analyze two explorative case studies combining the systematic yet qualitative cross-impact balance analysis (CIB) with simulation. The criteria allow illuminating whether and on what dimensions and levels these new forms of integrated scenario methodologies do (or do not) support scenario consistency and scenario traceability. The empirical analysis shows that new integrated scenario methodologies combining CIB with numerical simulation present some new answers to the traceability and consistency challenges of classical SAS approaches. The application suggests that the two criteria are appropriate and useful for assessing scenario quality from an academic perspective. Still, further research is needed to understand the relation of traceability and consistency to additional quality criteria that influence the practical usefulness of scenarios from a policy advice-oriented perspective.

The topical collection on quality criteria for futures research: a short introduction

“…Kosow [10] has extended the consistency concepts to concern also consistency within a scenario sample (or scenario set), consistency between different forms of one scenario and consistency of underlying models of scenarios.…”

“…Kosow [10] and the GTC share the interpretation that the perception of the consistency is a subjective matter. According to Kosow, scenario storylines rely on holistic consistency 'filters', as intuitive gut feelings, i.e., subjective consistency definitions.…”

“…Unlike learning beings or actors, notlearning beings behave consistently following their invariant criteria of sameness. The other basic difference is that Kosow [10] explicitly excludes from the scenario consistency dimensions 'consistency with current knowledge'. For the learning experience, the consistency between the mental model based on the criteria of sameness and the perceived data is decisive.…”

“…The articles of Kosow [10] and Shala [23] do not have specified application contexts. Shala's article discusses quality criteria on the basic philosophy level.…”

“…The foci of Kosow's [10] paper are two basic scientific quality criteria of scenarios: consistency and traceability. Traceability of scenarios is often discussed under the terms of transparency, explicitness, accessibility, documentation, and also reproducibility.…”