New parties and matryoshka scissions in Spain. The case of Podemos and Más Madrid

Vizcaíno, Aida; Pavía, José M.

doi:10.1016/j.ssaho.2022.100307

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 43 publications

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“…In particular, in order to ease communication and properly handle the data, we have, on the one hand, labeled with the same tag the votes gained for those candidates that compete under the same ideological ascription (see the notes given below Tables 2 and 3) and, on the other hand, as it is common practice (e.g. Klima et al, 2019; Plescia and De Sio, 2018; Puig and Ginebra, 2014; Vizcaino and Pavía, 2022), merged small political options in an ‘Others’ option. In all the elections, we have considered as political options at least: Conservative, Liberal, Socialist, and Others.…”

Section: Methods and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

An ecological inference approach to the origins of proportional representation

Penadés,

Pavía

2024

Social Science Information

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Facing a prospective majority of socialists during the early third of the 20th century, some secular conservative and liberal parties pooled their votes to raise the majority threshold for the left, while others raised it by enacting some form of proportional representation. We use vote transfers, estimated by a new method of ecological inference, to explain those far-reaching choices. We provide a new conceptualization and measurement of the segmentation of the electoral market to test a proposition within the Boix-Rokkan framework: proportional representation reform was chosen when vote transfers foretold coalition failure. To substantiate our claim, we investigate two most similar cases, Denmark during 1910–1918 and New Zealand during 1928–1931, that diverged in the explanatory variable and in the response.

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Section: Methods and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

An ecological inference approach to the origins of proportional representation

Penadés,

Pavía

2024

Social Science Information

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Adjustment of initial estimates of voter transition probabilities to guarantee consistency and completeness

Pavía

2023

SN Soc Sci

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The estimation of voter shifts (stayers and switchers) between elections is an active area of research that, for decades, has attracted the interest of many scholars. The voter transitions are typically summarised in a row-standardised proportion (probability) matrix. This matrix is usually unknown, despite it being of interest to many agents, including party teams, the media and political scientists. When surveys are used to approximate this matrix, it is not uncommon for the estimated matrix to be inconsistent and even incomplete. The iterative proportional fitting algorithm solves inconsistency but cannot fix incompleteness. Hierarchical Bayesian models that combine aggregate and survey estimates can solve both problems, but are extremely complex and data-demanding. This paper details all the scenarios concerning the available information that can be reasonably considered and, within the linear programming framework, develops specific models to reach consistency and completeness. The models are, moreover, quite flexible as they allow analysts to have missing values and to introduce through weights their relative confidences in the different a priori transition proportions. The usefulness of the proposed models is illustrated with real data. Interested readers can easily use these new models with their data as they have been programmed in the function lp_apriori of the R-package lphom.

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Integer estimation of inner-cell values in RxC ecological tables

Pavía

2024

Bulletin of Sociological Methodology/Bulletin de Méthodologie S

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The estimation of the inner entries of a set of related RxC contingency tables when only the margins are known poses one of the most difficult problems in the field of the social sciences, present in many areas from marketing to quantitative history; being particularly prevalent in political science and sociology. With dozens of methods proposed to solve this, (almost) all of them have been devised to infer conditional proportion distributions, despite interior values of contingency tables being integers. This paper develops, within the linear programming framework, a new algorithm to output integer solutions, and assesses it using real data from more than 500 elections where actual cross-distributions of votes are known. Although the new approach is proposed with the expectation that more accurate solutions would be obtained by narrowing the search space from a continuous to a discrete simplex space, the results attained suggest that the use of a pure integer approach does not lead to more accurate solutions. The recommendation is therefore to integer-adjust decimal solutions when the focus is on counts. Interested practitioners can easily use the new models as they have been programmed in the R-package lphom.

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New parties and matryoshka scissions in Spain. The case of Podemos and Más Madrid

Cited by 3 publications

References 43 publications

An ecological inference approach to the origins of proportional representation

An ecological inference approach to the origins of proportional representation

Adjustment of initial estimates of voter transition probabilities to guarantee consistency and completeness

Integer estimation of inner-cell values in RxC ecological tables

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