Acquiring a mechanistic understanding of the role of biotic feedbacks for the links between atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and temperature is essential for trustworthy climate predictions. Currently, computer-based simulations are the only available tool to estimate the global impact of biotic feedbacks on future atmospheric CO 2 and temperatures. Here we propose an alternative and complementary approach by using materially closed, energetically open analogue/physical models of the carbon cycle. We argue that there is unexplored potential in using a materially closed approach to improve our understanding of the magnitude and direction of many biotic carbon feedbacks and that recent technological advances make this feasible. We also suggest how such systems could be designed and discuss the advantages and limitations of establishing physical models of the global carbon cycle.
BackgroundAs a species we are effectively "trapped" on a planet which, for all practical purposes, is materially closed, but energetically open (Fuller and Snyder 1969). With the exception of the cosmic debris that falls into the atmosphere and the negligible quantities of matter in satellites and the light gases that escape into outer space, the Earth is materially closed (Morowitz et al. 2005). We have no real choice other than to survive within this closed system and, more critically, to ensure that it remains sustainable. From cells to ecosystems and through to biomes, there is no other biological or ecological scale besides the Biosphere (Vernadsky 1926) at which life is able to persist in the absence of significant matter Climatic Change (2012) 112:709-716