New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023

Cheng, Lijing; Abraham, John; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Boyer, Tim; Mann, Michael E.; Zhu, Jiang; Wang, Fan; Yu, Fujiang; Locarnini, Ricardo; Fasullo, John; Zheng, Fei; Li, Yuanlong; Zhang, Bin; Wan, Liying; Chen, Xingrong; Wang, Dakui; Feng, Licheng; Song, Xiangzhou; Liu, Yulong; Reseghetti, Franco; Simoncelli, Simona; Gouretski, Viktor; Chen, Gengxin; Mishonov, Alexey; Reagan, Jim; Von Schuckmann, Karina; Pan, Yuying; Tan, Zhetao; Zhu, Yujing; Wei, Wangxu; Li, Guancheng; Ren, Qiuping; Cao, Lijuan; Lu, Yayang

doi:10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5

Cited by 46 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Accordingly, depending on the dataset used for the analysis, the heat content of the upper 2000 m of the world ocean is currently increasing at a rate of either about 0.9 W m -2 or 1.3 W m -2 per ocean surface area (You 2024). These values are consistent with the total Earth energy imbalance exceeding 1 W m -2 (Loeb et al 2022) and the fact that the ocean alone stores 90 % of the globally accumulated heat (Cheng et al 2024).…”

Section: Ocean Warming and Cloudinesssupporting

confidence: 81%

TEOS-10 Equations for the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) and Climatic Feedback of Marine Clouds

Feistel,

Hellmuth

2024

Preprint

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At an energy flux imbalance of about 1 W m–2, the ocean is storing 90 % of the heat accumulating by global warming. However, neither the causes nor the responsible geophysical processes are sufficiently well understood. More detailed investigations of the different phenomena contributing to the oceanic energy balance are warranted. Here, the role of low-level marine clouds in the air-sea interaction is analysed. TEOS-10, the International Thermodynamic Equation of State of Seawater – 2010, is exploited for a rigorous thermodynamic description of the climatic trend of the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) of the marine troposphere. Rising Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) at constant Relative Humidity (RH) is elevating marine clouds, cooling the cloud base and reducing the downward thermal radiation. This LCL feedback effect is negative and counteracting ocean warming. At the current global SST of about 292 K, the net radiative heat flux from the ocean surface to the LCL cloud base is estimated to 24 W m–2. Per degree of SST increase, this net flux is expected to be enhanced by almost 0.5 W m–2. The climatic LCL feedback effect is relevant for the ocean’s energy balance and may thermodynamically rigorously be modelled in terms of TEOS-10 equations. LCL height may serve as a remotely measured, sensitive estimate for sea surface relative fugacity, or conventional relative humidity.

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Section: Ocean Warming and Cloudinesssupporting

confidence: 81%

TEOS-10 Equations for the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) and Climatic Feedback of Marine Clouds

Feistel,

Hellmuth

2024

Preprint

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“…The poor condition of these birds may reflect the cumulative stresses of evolving foraging conditions in their pre-migration staging areas off the coast of Argentina, a long migration, and inclement weather events once they arrive at their northern foraging grounds (Robuck, A., pers comm). In 2023, sea surface temperatures were among the highest on record (Cheng et al, 2024) and rapid oceanographic changes directly influence the abundance of forage fish and important prey species for marine top predators, like seabirds (Cairns, 1988; Harding et al, 2007). These factors together likely have contributed to the wrecking event of this long-distance migrant.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seabird and sea duck mortalities were lower during the second breeding season in eastern Canada following the introduction of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A H5Nx viruses

Cormier,

Barychka,

Beaumont

et al. 2024

Preprint

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H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses have caused significant mortality events in various wild bird species across Europe, North America, South America, and Africa. In North America, the largest impacts on wild birds have been in eastern Canada, where over 40,391 wild birds were reported to have died from highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) between April and September 2022. In the year following, we applied previously established methods to quantify total reported mortality in eastern Canada for a full year October 2022, to September 2023. In this study, we (i) document the spatial, temporal and taxonomic patterns of wild bird mortality in the 12 months that followed the mass mortality event in the summer of 2022 and (ii) quantify the observed differences in mortality across the breeding season (April to September) of 2022 and 2023. In eastern Canada, there was high uncertainty about whether 2023 would bring another year of devastating HPAI-linked mortalities. Mortalities in the breeding season were 93% lower in 2023 compared to 2022 but encompassed a more taxonomically diverse array of species. We found that mortalities in the fall and winter (non-breeding season) were dominated by waterfowl, while mortalities during the spring and summer (breeding season) were dominated by seabirds. Due to a low prevalence of HPAI among the subset of tested birds, we refrained from broadly attributing reported mortalities in 2023 to HPAI. However, our analysis did identify three notable mortality events linked to HPAI, involving at least 1,646 Greater Snow Geese, 232 Canada Geese, and 212 Northern Gannets. This study emphasizes the ongoing need for H5NX surveillance and mortality assessments as the patterns of mortality in wild populations continue to change.

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“…To detect statistically significant differences in the dataset, the authors perform permutation testing. To assess the impacts of accelerated GW on May to October Upper Hunter precipitation, the dataset was split into two 30-year periods, 1963-1992 and 1993-2022, with the second period aligning with accelerated global warming (GW) from the 1990s [10][11][12][13] and accelerated GW impacts in southeast Australia [9,14]. Hence, the data for the entire period are non-stationary.…”

Section: Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Machine Learning Identification of Attributes and Predictors for a Flash Drought in Eastern Australia

Speer,

Hartigan,

Leslie

2024

Climate

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Flash droughts (FDs) are natural disasters that strike suddenly and intensify quickly. They occur almost anywhere, anytime of the year, and can have severe socio-economic, health and environmental impacts. This study focuses on a recent FD that began in the cool season of the Upper Hunter region of Eastern Australia, an important energy and agricultural local and global exporter that is both flood- and drought-prone. Here, the authors investigate the FD that started abruptly in May 2023 and extended to October 2023. The FD followed floods in November 2021 and much above-average May–October 2022 rainfall. Eight machine learning (ML) regression techniques were applied to the 60 May–October periods from 1963–2022, using a rolling windows attribution search from 45 possible climate drivers, both individually and in combination. The six most prominent climate drivers, and likely predictors, provide an understanding of the major contributors to the FD. Next, the 1963–2022 data were divided into two shorter timespans, 1963–1992 and 1993–2022, generally accepted as representing the early and accelerated global warming periods, respectively. The key attributes were markedly different for the two timespans. These differences are readily explained by the impacts of global warming on hemispheric and synoptic-scale atmospheric circulations.

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New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023

Cited by 46 publications

References 51 publications

TEOS-10 Equations for the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) and Climatic Feedback of Marine Clouds

TEOS-10 Equations for the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) and Climatic Feedback of Marine Clouds

Seabird and sea duck mortalities were lower during the second breeding season in eastern Canada following the introduction of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A H5Nx viruses

Machine Learning Identification of Attributes and Predictors for a Flash Drought in Eastern Australia

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