New Unidimensional Indexes for China

Bechtel, Gordon G.

doi:10.3390/mca22010013

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…We have also benefited from Dr. Bechtel's insistence on monitoring a population's economic indicators over time, coupled with a gradual approach to resolving societal conflicts and loosening entrenched beliefs. This paper generalizes previous work reported in [5,6] and [1,7,8]. The author thanks the reviewers of all five of these open access articles for their stringent reviews, which have strengthened this article's content and clarity.…”

Section: Acknowledgementssupporting

confidence: 80%

GDP Almost Perfectly Predicts Survival

Bechtel¹,

Bechtel²

2021

Improving Quality of Life - Exploring Standard of Living, Wellbeing, and Community Development

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This article extends results reported by Bechtel, G. and Bechtel, T. (2021). These previous findings induce the hypothesis confirmed here; namely, that gross domestic product GDP nearly perfectly predicts survival in the world’s entire population. The fractional polynomial regressions here are run over the pre-pandemic period 1991–2016. During the subsequent pandemic, the American Center for Disease Control reported that life expectancy at birth in the USA dropped one year during the first six months of 2020, the largest drop since World War 11. The drops in African and Hispanic life expectancy at birth during this period were 2.7 and 1.9 years (Aljazeera; Democracy Now, February 18, 2021). The USA is the worst covid-19-effected population. It is now imperative to confirm that life expectancy at birth is well predicted from GDP in all nations over 1991–2018. This pre-pandemic control for each nation will accurately calibrate it’s subsequent yearly survival drops due to Covid-19. This is especially important in light of the trade war between the United States and China, which has increased the need for accurate measurement of the human effects of this war.

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Section: Acknowledgementssupporting

confidence: 80%

GDP Almost Perfectly Predicts Survival

Bechtel¹,

Bechtel²

2021

Improving Quality of Life - Exploring Standard of Living, Wellbeing, and Community Development

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“…The author thanks Dr. Bethany Bechtel for her gift [4] that alerted him to the importance of GDP to us all, and for her insistence on monitoring a nation's economic indicators over time. This adaptation of [12] [35] improves upon [35] by parsimoniously linking GDP to the United Nation's Human Development Index.…”

Section: Acknowledgementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…unique up to multiplication by a positive scalar.The second weighting of G j derives from a 2-level principal components analysis, with populations nested within successive years for a given nation: Lemma 1. M = a 1 G 1 + a 2 G 2 + a 3 G 3 is the first principal component of G 1 , G 2 , and G 3 where(a 1 a 2 a 3 )is the first eigenvector of the covariance matrix of G 1 , G 2 , and G 3[12] [13] (pp. 536-544).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

GDP <i>Is</i> Well-Being! Results in the USA and China

Bechtel¹

2019

JSS

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This article quality assures GDP and then links it to well-being in the world's two largest economies. Despite the global plethora of national indexes, there has been little quality assurance of the unidimensionality of their component indicators. Unidimensional index theory constructs a weighted composite from a 2-level principal components analysis of its several indicators. This weighted composite evaluates its unweighted counterpart, and informs governments about the allocation of resources over its composite indicators. Two axioms predict that weighted and unweighted indexes are perfectly correlated over successive yearly populations in the USA and China. Under these axioms, fractional polynomial regressions of any criterion on these weighted and unweighted indexes perfectly predict this criterion. We confirm the unidimensionality of American and Chinese GDP indexes and their near-perfect prediction of the United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI). This application discovers that HDI computation can be carried out from a nation's GDP alone, i.e., without survey sampling, questionnaire interrogation, probabilistic inference, significance testing, or even HDI data.

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“…This section treats latent individual-time points on the real line, with individuals nested within successive years for a given nation (Bechtel 2017;Johnston 1984, pp. 536-44).…”

Section: Latent 2-level Principal Components Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It differs from standard lation, which equally weights the indicators in Section 2 by an arithmetic summation. It from other indexes, which weight their indicators to maximize the prediction of external -Level Principal Components Analysis ection treats latent individual-time points on the real line, with individuals nested within years for a given nation (Bechtel 2017;Johnston 1984, pp. 536-44 onents analysis implied by axioms 1 and 2 in Section 4.2.…”

Section: Latent 2-level Principal Components Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

The Human Development Index as Isoelastic GDP: Evidence from China and Pakistan

Bechtel

2018

Economies

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Gross domestic product (GDP) is shown to possess three new desiderata. First, GDP is almost perfectly correlated over time with the first principal component of its three classical indicators. Second, this principal component is in a class of weighted indexes ancillary to GDP. Each ancillary index informs policy as to allocation of resources over the three GDP indicators. Third, a country-specific power of GDP almost perfectly predicts the United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI). These findings are brought by principal components and regression analyses of time series supplied by the World Bank and the United Nations. Axiomatic HDI computation is carried out without survey sampling, probabilistic inference, significance testing, or even HDI data.

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New Unidimensional Indexes for China

Cited by 4 publications

References 17 publications

GDP Almost Perfectly Predicts Survival

GDP Almost Perfectly Predicts Survival

GDP <i>Is</i> Well-Being! Results in the USA and China

The Human Development Index as Isoelastic GDP: Evidence from China and Pakistan

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New Unidimensional Indexes for China

Cited by 4 publications

References 17 publications

GDP Almost Perfectly Predicts Survival

GDP Almost Perfectly Predicts Survival

GDP &lt;i&gt;Is&lt;/i&gt; Well-Being! Results in the USA and China

The Human Development Index as Isoelastic GDP: Evidence from China and Pakistan

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Product

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GDP <i>Is</i> Well-Being! Results in the USA and China