News on inflation and the epidemiology of inflation expectations in China

Lei, Chengyao; Lu, Zhe; Zhang, Chengsi

doi:10.1016/j.ecosys.2015.04.006

Cited by 14 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Additionally, we find some limited evidence that the Internet search "sentiment", that is, the keywords used to conduct inflation-related searches, affect inflation expectations in the expected direction. All our findings are in line with the various works on epidemiology cited above, especially that of Lei et. al.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…Carroll's work provides a micro foundation for an aggregate expectations equation in a sticky information set-up consistent with Mankiw and Reis (2002). Since then, the epidemiological model has been explored by Lamla and Maag (2012), Pfajfar and Santoro (2013), Erhmann, Pfajfar and Santoro (2014) and Lei et. al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first few studies induct media news as the common source of information based on which the general public form their own inflation expectations. Lei et. al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Epidemiology of inflation expectations and internet search: an analysis for India

Saakshi

Sahu

Chattopadhyay

2019

J Econ Interact Coord

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This paper investigates how inflation expectations of individuals are formed in India. We investigate if the news on inflation plays a role in the formation of inflation expectations following the epidemiology-based work by Carroll (2003). The standard literature on this topic considers news coverage by the print and audiovisual media as the sources of formation of inflation expectations. Instead, we consider the Internet as a potential common source of information based on which agents form their expectations about future inflation. Based on data extracted from Google Trends, our results indicate that during the period 2006 to 2018, the Internet has indeed been a common source of information based on which agents have formed their expectations about future inflation, and the Internet search sentiment has had some impact on inflation expectations. Additionally, based on the inflation expectations series derived from the Google Trends data, we find that there is presence of "information stickiness" in the system since only a small fraction of the population update their inflation expectations each period.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Epidemiology of inflation expectations and internet search: an analysis for India

Saakshi

Sahu

Chattopadhyay

2019

J Econ Interact Coord

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“…The news spreads slowly among the economic agents. Carroll's epidemiological expectations theory is supported (or partially supported) by the empirical findings for the USA (Pfajfar, 2013), Germany (Lamla, 2012) and for China (Lei, 2015). Other studies search for possible enlargement of original Carroll's findings and examine whether the volume and content of the media signal may affect consumers forecast accuracy (Lama, 2014).…”

Section: Literature Overviewmentioning

confidence: 90%

Central Banks Inflation Forecast and Expectations. A Comparative Analysis

Szyszko¹

2017

Prague Economic Papers

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The question on the inflation expectations management is one of the most important ones from the central bank's point of view. The inflation forecast can be a helpful tool of managing expectations. If it actually is, the interdependences of the inflation forecast and expectations can be observed. The existence of such interdependences opens the field for determining the preconditions that might support expectations formation. The hypothesis assumes that associations of inflation forecasts and inflation expectations depend on the central bank's credibility and consistency in inflation forecast targeting. The research covers the Czech National Bank, the National Bank of Hungary, the National Bank of Poland and Sveriges Riksbank. The research combines qualitative and quantitative methods. The research uses survey-based expectations quantified with probabilistic method. The main finding is that the relatively high level of credibility and consistency in inflation forecast targeting is not sufficient to achieve strong interdependences of inflation forecast and expectations.

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“…Sebagian besar kegiatan transaksi dalam perekonomian di suatu negara khusunya di indonesia menggunakan jenis uang kartal ini sebagai alat tukar yang sah. (Prasetyo 2012 (Lei et al, 2015). Disinilah tugas Bank Indonesia sangat diperlukan sesuai dengan tujuan Bank Indonesia yaitu menjaga stabilitas nilai rupiah, baik jika dibandingkan dengan harga barang dalam negeri maupun jika di bandingkan dengan valuta asing, sesuai dengan tujuan tersebut Bank Indonesia berhak untuk mengatur atau mengelola besar moneter yang ada sesuai dengan yang dibutuhkan perekonomian.…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Determinan Permintaan Uang Di Indonesia Tahun 2005.Q1-2014.QIV: Pendekatan ECM

Awang

2018

EDAJ

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Abstrak ___________________________________________________________________Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh variabel PDB, Indeks Harga Konsumen, Suku Bunga Pinjaman, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan dan Nilai tukar (Kurs) terhadap Permintaan Uang (M1) di Indonesia. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa dalam estimasi jangka pendek variabel PDB memiliki hubungan positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap permintaan uang (M1). Sementara dalam jangka panjang PDB memiliki hubungan positif dan signifikan terhadap permintaan uang (M1). Variabel IHK dalam jangka pendek memiliki hubungan positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap permintaan uang (M1). Sementara dalam jangka panjang IHK memiliki hubungan positif dan signifikan terhadap permintaan uang (M1). Variabel Suku bunga pinjaman dalam jangka pendek memiliki hubungan negatif dan signifikan terhadap permintaan uang (M1). Sementara dalam jangka panjang Suku bunga pinjaman memiliki hubungan negatif dan tidak signifikan terhadap permintaan uang (M1). Variabel IHSG dalam jangka pendek memiliki hubungan positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap permintaan uang (M1). Sementara dalam jangka panjang IHSG memiliki hubungan positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap permintaan uang (M1). Variabel Nilai tukar dalam jangka pendek memiliki hubungan positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap permintaan uang (M1). Sementara dalam jangka panjang Nilai tukar memiliki hubungan positif dan signifikan terhadap permintaan uang (M1). Abstract ___________________________________________________________________ This study aimed to analyze the influence of variables GDP, Consumer Price Index, Lending Rate, JCI and the exchange rate to Demand Money (M1) in Indonesia in the short term and long term from 2005 to 2014. The analysis showed that in the short term estimates of GDP variable has a positive and significant relationship to the demand for money (M1). While in the long term GDP has a positive and significant relationship to the demand for money (M1). Variables CPI in the short term have a positive relationship and no significant effect on the demand for money (M1). While in the long term CPI has a positive and significant relationship to the demand for money (M1). The variable lending rate in the short term have a negative and significant relationship to the demand for money (M1). While long-term lending rate has a negative correlation and no significant effect on the demand for money (M1

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News on inflation and the epidemiology of inflation expectations in China

Cited by 14 publications

References 28 publications

Epidemiology of inflation expectations and internet search: an analysis for India

Epidemiology of inflation expectations and internet search: an analysis for India

Central Banks Inflation Forecast and Expectations. A Comparative Analysis

Determinan Permintaan Uang Di Indonesia Tahun 2005.Q1-2014.QIV: Pendekatan ECM

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