23The ability of species to mutually invade from rare is the defining measure of species 24 coexistence. However, it is unknown whether invasion growth rates predict any characteristic 25 of long-term community dynamics. Here, we use a model five-species microbial community 26 to investigate the link between short-term growth rate and long-term relative abundance. We 27 manipulated diversity and tested the ability of species to coexist in different combinations.
28Across all diversity levels and species combinations, populations re-established from rare in 29 71 of 75 combinations and all combinations were stable in long-term culture. Moreover, short-30 term relative invader growth rate was positively associated with long-term equilibrium 31 proportion, despite large variation in interactions between species and communities. This 32 finding was confirmed using a modelling approach and suggests that the short-term invasion 33 growth rate can predict long-term relative abundance within that community. 34 56 both support (Martínez-Meyer et al. 2013) and refute (Dallas & Hastings 2018) the niche 57 centrality hypothesis across animal and plant communities. Recent theory has highlighted why 58 this macroecological relationship may not be ubiquitous, with spatial and temporal variation 59 3 and metapopulation dynamics potentially causing this relationship to break down (Holt 2019; 60