Nexus Between Oil, Gold Price and Dxy Index on Indonesian Stock Market During Geopolitical Events (2022 – 2024)

Abstract

Objective: The aim of this study is to observe the impact of oil, gold, and the DXY index on the Indonesian stock market during geopolitical events in 2022-2024. Theoretical Framework: Rising political tensions also have a major impact on global currencies, financial market and commodity market. This event lead to uncertainty which increasing the investment risk. Hence, geopolitical events could affect stock return in capital market. Method: The data used consists of daily Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) closing data, WTI daily closing prices, gold daily closing prices, and DXY closing data from 24 February 2022 – 31 December 2022 and 14 April 2024 – 30 April 2024. Data obtained form Bloomberg. The analysis technique used was GARCH (1.1). Results and Discussion: The results showed that WTI oil price changes had significant positive effects on stock return in Indonesia. However, gold price changes had insignificant positive effects on stock returns in Indonesia during geopolitical events, while the DXY Index had insignificant, negative effects. Research Implications: Investors and traders in Indonesia Stock Exchange should consider oil price changes for investing in stocks during geopolitical events. Originality/Value: This study contributes to literatures regarding the stock market turbulence during geopolitical events and its effect toward stock return. The relevance and value of this research are evidenced by the insignificanct effect of gold and DXY toward stock return, while WTI has significant effect toward stock return.