NGA-East Ground-Motion Models for the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Maps

Goulet, Christine; Bozorgnia, Yousef; Kuehn, Nicolas; Al Atik, Linda; Youngs, Robert; Graves, Robert; Atkinson, Gail

doi:10.55461/qozj4825

Cited by 35 publications

References 38 publications

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Capturing Geographically-Varying Uncertainty in Earthquake Ground Motion Models or What We Think We Know May Change

Douglas

2018

Geotechnical, Geological and Earthquake Engineering

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Our knowledge of earthquake ground motions of engineering significance varies geographically. The prediction of earthquake shaking in parts of the globe with high seismicity and a long history of observations from dense strong-motion networks, such as coastal California, much of Japan and central Italy, should be associated with lower uncertainty than ground-motion models for use in much of the rest of the world, where moderate and large earthquakes occur infrequently and monitoring networks are sparse or only recently installed. This variation in uncertainty, however, is not often captured in the models currently used for seismic hazard assessments, particularly for national or continental-scale studies. In this theme lecture, firstly I review recent proposals for developing groundmotion logic trees and then I develop and test a new approach for application in 2-John Douglas, 16ECEE Theme Lecture Europe. The proposed procedure is based on the backbone approach with scale factors that are derived to account for potential differences between regions. Weights are proposed for each of the logic-tree branches to model large epistemic uncertainty in the absence of local data. When local data is available these weights are updated so that the epistemic uncertainty captured by the logic tree reduces. I argue that this approach is more defensible than a logic tree populated by previously published ground-motion models. It should lead to more stable and robust seismic hazard assessments that capture our doubt over future earthquake shaking.

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Capturing Geographically-Varying Uncertainty in Earthquake Ground Motion Models or What We Think We Know May Change

Douglas

2018

Geotechnical, Geological and Earthquake Engineering

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A regionally-adaptable “scaled backbone” ground motion logic tree for shallow seismicity in Europe: application to the 2020 European seismic hazard model

Weatherill

Kotha

Cotton

2020

Bull Earthquake Eng

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The selection of ground motion models, and the representation of their epistemic uncertainty in the form of a logic tree, is one of the fundamental components of probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis. A new ground motion model (GMM) logic tree has been developed for the 2020 European seismic hazard model, which develops upon recently compiled ground motion data sets in Europe. In contrast to previous European seismic hazard models, the new ground model logic tree is built around the scaled backbone concept. Epistemic uncertainties are represented as calibrations to a reference model and aim to characterise the potential distributions of median ground motions resulting from variability in source scaling and attenuation. These scaled backbone logic trees are developed and presented for shallow crustal seismic sources in Europe. Using the new European strong motion flatfile, and capitalising on recent perspectives in ground motion modelling in the scientific literature, a general and transferable procedure is presented for the construction of a backbone model and the regionalisation of epistemic uncertainty. This innovative approach forms a general framework for revising and updating the GMM logic tree at national and European scale as new strong motion data emerge in the future.

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A ground motion logic tree for seismic hazard analysis in the stable cratonic region of Europe: regionalisation, model selection and development of a scaled backbone approach

Weatherill

Cotton

2020

Bull Earthquake Eng

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Regions of low seismicity present a particular challenge for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis when identifying suitable ground motion models (GMMs) and quantifying their epistemic uncertainty. The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model adopts a scaled backbone approach to characterise this uncertainty for shallow seismicity in Europe, incorporating region-to-region source and attenuation variability based on European strong motion data. This approach, however, may not be suited to stable cratonic region of northeastern Europe (encompassing Finland, Sweden and the Baltic countries), where exploration of various global geophysical datasets reveals that its crustal properties are distinctly different from the rest of Europe, and are instead more closely represented by those of the Central and Eastern United States. Building upon the suite of models developed by the recent NGA East project, we construct a new scaled backbone ground motion model and calibrate its corresponding epistemic uncertainties. The resulting logic tree is shown to provide comparable hazard outcomes to the epistemic uncertainty modelling strategy adopted for the Eastern United States, despite the different approaches taken. Comparison with previous GMM selections for northeastern Europe, however, highlights key differences in short period accelerations resulting from new assumptions regarding the characteristics of the reference rock and its influence on site amplification.

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NGA-East Ground-Motion Models for the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Maps

Cited by 35 publications

References 38 publications

Capturing Geographically-Varying Uncertainty in Earthquake Ground Motion Models or What We Think We Know May Change

Capturing Geographically-Varying Uncertainty in Earthquake Ground Motion Models or What We Think We Know May Change

A regionally-adaptable “scaled backbone” ground motion logic tree for shallow seismicity in Europe: application to the 2020 European seismic hazard model

A ground motion logic tree for seismic hazard analysis in the stable cratonic region of Europe: regionalisation, model selection and development of a scaled backbone approach

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