Many of the traits associated with elevated rates of speciation, including niche specialization and having small and isolated populations, are similarly linked with an elevated risk of extinction. This suggests that rapidly speciating lineages may also be more extinction prone. Empirical tests of a speciation-extinction correlation are rare because assessing paleontological extinction rates is difficult. However, the modern biodiversity crisis allows us to observe patterns of extinction in real time, and if this hypothesis is true then we would expect young clades that have recently diversified to have high contemporary extinction risk.Here, we examine evolutionary patterns of modern extinction risk across over 300 genera within one of the most threatened vertebrate classes, the Amphibia. Consistent with predictions, rapidly diversifying amphibian clades also had a greater share of threatened species. Curiously, this pattern is not reflected in other tetrapod classes and may reflect a greater propensity to speciate through peripheral isolation in amphibians, which is partly supported by a negative correlation between diversification rate and mean geographic range size. This clustered threat in rapidly diversifying amphibian genera means that protecting a small number of species can achieve large gains in preserving amphibian phylogenetic diversity. Nonindependence between speciation and extinction rates has many consequences for patterns of biodiversity and how we may choose to conserve it.
K E Y W O R D S :Amphibia, diversification, extinction risk, IUCN, peripatry, speciation rate, species longevity.
Impact SummaryThe rates of speciation and extinction dictate the frequency at which new species arise and are lost over evolutionary time. Characteristics of species that may promote speciation include being highly specialized to particular environments, existing in isolated populations, or having a low population abundance. These same traits are also associated with extinction: specialized species are vulnerable to environmental change, species that exist in isolated pockets lack population connectivity, and small populations can blink out rapidly. This suggests that lineages speciating readily due to these traits may also readily lose species. Assessing whether speciation and extinction rates are correlated is difficult, as measuring extinction based on fossils can be biased for many groups. However, we are currently in the midst of observing numerous extinctions in real time, and observing variation in the species currently at risk of extinction may serve as a proxy measure for extinction rate across groups. In this study, we show in amphibians that lineages that have high ongoing diversification also have a greater share of species threatened with extinction compared to slowly diversifying groups. This supports the idea that speciation and extinction may go hand-in-hand. Comparing this pattern in amphibians to other clades reveals a surprising discrepancy: only plants have been found to show a similar pattern....