Nigeria: Climate War. Migratory Adaptation and Farmer-Herder Conflicts

Akinyemi, Temitope Edward; Olaniyan, Azeez

doi:10.24193/csq.21.1

Cited by 10 publications

(10 citation statements)

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“…Smallholder rainfed agriculture and herding are becoming increasingly difficult due to unpredictable availability of water and in some locations expansion of the Sahara Desert [23,61,62]. These stressors and competition for available resources may have contributed to conflicts in Nigeria [63], Uganda [64], Sudan [65], and Kenya [66] 2. The MENA Region: Climate models for the RCP8.5 (business-as-usual emissions trajectory) in the Middle East and North Africa estimate that by 2050 there will be at least a 100 days a year (and by 2100, over 200 days) when temperatures will cross into the 90th percentile for the region, with the hottest temperatures exceeding 100°F [20, •24].…”

Section: Who Is At Risk?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Smallholder rainfed agriculture and herding are becoming increasingly difficult due to unpredictable availability of water and in some locations expansion of the Sahara Desert [ 23 , 61 , 62 ]. These stressors and competition for available resources may have contributed to conflicts in Nigeria [ 63 ], Uganda [ 64 ], Sudan [ 65 ], and Kenya [ 66 ], although the relative causal contributions of climate change, governance, population pressures, and preexisting sectarian divisions to outbreaks of organized violence remain a subject of intense debate [ 31 , 67 , 68 ]. Many people facing unpredictable weather, food insecurity, and in some cases violence have left their land for urban centers in African nations, where conflict with existing populations and discord over space and essentials may occur [ 69 – 71 ].…”

Section: Who Is At Risk?mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife

Balsari

Dresser

Lee

2020

Curr Envir Health Rpt

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Purpose of Review In this article, we examine the intersection of human migration and climate change. Growing evidence that changing environmental and climate conditions are triggers for displacement, whether voluntary or forced, adds a powerful argument for profound anticipatory engagement. Recent Findings Climate change is expected to displace vast populations from rural to urban areas, and when life in the urban centers becomes untenable, many will continue their onward migration elsewhere (Wennersten and Robbins 2017; Rigaud et al. 2018). It is now accepted that the changing climate will be a threat multiplier, will exacerbate the need or decision to migrate, and will disproportionately affect large already vulnerable sections of humanity. Worst-case scenario models that assume business-as-usual approaches to climate change predict that nearly one-third of the global population will live in extremely hot (uninhabitable) climates, currently found in less than 1% of the earth’s surface mainly in the Sahara. Summary We find that the post–World War II regime designed to receive European migrants has failed to address population movement in the latter half of the twentieth century fueled by economic want, globalization, opening (and then closing) borders, civil strife, and war. Key stakeholders are in favor of using existing instruments to support a series of local, regional, and international arrangements to protect environmental migrants, most of whom will not cross international borders. The proposal for a dedicated UN agency and a new Convention has largely come from academia and NGOs. Migration is now recognized not only as a consequence of instability but as an adaptation strategy to the changing climate. Migration must be anticipated as a certainty, and thereby planned for and supported.

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Section: Who Is At Risk?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Smallholder rainfed agriculture and herding are becoming increasingly difficult due to unpredictable availability of water and in some locations expansion of the Sahara Desert [ 23 , 61 , 62 ]. These stressors and competition for available resources may have contributed to conflicts in Nigeria [ 63 ], Uganda [ 64 ], Sudan [ 65 ], and Kenya [ 66 ], although the relative causal contributions of climate change, governance, population pressures, and preexisting sectarian divisions to outbreaks of organized violence remain a subject of intense debate [ 31 , 67 , 68 ]. Many people facing unpredictable weather, food insecurity, and in some cases violence have left their land for urban centers in African nations, where conflict with existing populations and discord over space and essentials may occur [ 69 – 71 ].…”

Section: Who Is At Risk?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife

Balsari

Dresser

Lee

2020

Curr Envir Health Rpt

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“…Climate change is also causing more conflict between pastoralists and settled farmers in some regions of the world and care must be taken so that a planned settling of herders in ways that makes enough land available for each owner is achieved. [ 23 , 24 , 25 ]. In Mongolia, there are already pastoralist protests against the government for providing mining licenses to companies in grazing lands in Mongolia and growing distrust amongst community members of each other because of different stances on mining issues [ 26 , 27 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rising Temperature and the Spatiotemporal Patterns of Foot and Mouth Disease of Livestock in Mongolia

Mun

Garroutte

Obasanjo

2023

IJERPH

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Background: Climate change is projected to have cascading effects on the environment and thereby trigger effects on animal health, human health and wellbeing. Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease affecting cloven-hoofed animals that has had dramatic socioeconomic impacts on nomadic pastoralist communities who are increasingly vulnerable to environmental degradation and climate change. FMD outbreaks are occurring more frequently in Mongolia and the effects of climatic change, such as more droughts, increasing temperature, and changing snow fall patterns, are also becoming more obvious. Methods: In this study we use spatiotemporal mapping and regression analyses to explore trends and associations between climate variables and FMD outbreaks across Mongolia from 2010 to 2020. Results: We found that the number of days with temperature above 80 °F in a province in a given year was associated with having a FMD outbreak. None of the other climate variables were associated with FMD outbreaks at the provincial level. Conclusion: Given the projected increase in warming temperatures across Mongolia, there is a need to further explore the association between rising temperatures and FMD outbreaks to prevent FMD from having cascading impacts on nomadic herder communities. Mitigating approaches for herders to use to reduce the impact of rising number of hot days on FMD spread needs to be devised and governments in countries with nomadic herding communities should enact climate adaptation policies for them.

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“…Most articles in this review relied on a combination of data-collection methods, the top three being interviews, focus group discussions (FGDs), and structured questionnaires or surveys (Akinyemi and Olaniyan 2017, Bukari et al 2018, Mahmood and Azuaga 2020. Figure 5 illustrates the number of articles that used each method.…”

Section: Methods and Analytical Techniquesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Conflict was a dominant theme in 85% of articles, most of which focused on the root causes and dynamics of conflict (e.g. Benjaminsen et al 2009, Akinyemi and Olaniyan 2017, Benjaminsen and Ba 2021 rather than on conflict management (Sangotegbe et al 2016, Hamisu et al 2017, Paalo 2021 or peacebuilding strategies (Bukari et al 2018, Setrana andKyei 2021). Authors conceptualized conflicts slightly differently.…”

Section: Conflictmentioning

confidence: 99%

Farmer–herder conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa: drivers, impacts, and resolution and peacebuilding strategies

Adams,

Thill,

Kuusaana

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Resource scarcity and insecurity due to climate change, coupled with ethnic, religious, and identity politics, have strained peaceful coexistence between farmers and herders in West and Central Africa over the last few decades. Violent farmer-herder clashes now pose a significant threat to security and stability in the Sahelian and savannah dryland regions. Despite the large and increasing literature on these conflicts in recent decades, no comprehensive reviews or syntheses of knowledge on these conflicts have been published. We review empirical studies on farmer-herder conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa published from 2000 to 2021, focusing holistically on drivers, impacts, and the opportunities and limits of the main resolution and peacebuilding strategies different actors use to manage the conflicts. Most of the studies focused on Nigeria, Ghana, Tanzania, and Mali and mainly covered conflict dynamics, political ecology, agriculture, climate change, conflict management, governance, land tenure, and peacebuilding. The majority were cross-sectional and relied on qualitative data and mixed methods. The reviewed literature shows that main drivers of farmer-herder conflicts are climate-induced environmental factors, land tenure insecurity, resource competition and intergroup conflicts and prejudices. Conflict control and prevention strategies fell along a spectrum of aggressive, through passive, to constructive tactics. The main conflict management strategies used included third-party intervention (mediation and arbitration), litigation, and direct negotiations for damage compensation. Key actors involved in peacebuilding efforts included farmers and herders themselves, community leaders, community-based organizations, police and courts, and informal community groups. Our findings and discussion advance broader understanding of farmer-herder conflicts, establish the opportunities and limits of various resolution approaches, and highlight gaps and directions for relevant future research.

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Nigeria: Climate War. Migratory Adaptation and Farmer-Herder Conflicts

Cited by 10 publications

References 27 publications

Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife

Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife

Rising Temperature and the Spatiotemporal Patterns of Foot and Mouth Disease of Livestock in Mongolia

Farmer–herder conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa: drivers, impacts, and resolution and peacebuilding strategies

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