Arctic primary production has increased by >50% in the last two decades, fueled by increased light and nutrient availability, but whether or not this trend continues will depend on a sustained nutrient supply to phytoplankton (Arrigo & van Dijken, 2015;Lewis et al., 2020). Currently, nitrogen (N) is the main limiting nutrient to phytoplankton in the Arctic Ocean (Krisch et al., 2020;Mills et al., 2018). As warming continues, the degree of N limitation may change as the water mass properties supplied from the Atlantic and Pacific are altered (Hatún et al., 2017;Woodgate, 2018). Stable isotope measurements of nitrate and organic nitrogen can be used to provide insights into past and present N limitation to phytoplankton (Francois Abstract The hydrography of the Arctic Seas is being altered by ongoing climate change, with knockon effects to nutrient dynamics and primary production. As the major pathway of exchange between the Arctic and the Atlantic, the Fram Strait hosts two distinct water masses in the upper water column, northward flowing warm and saline Atlantic Waters in the east, and southward flowing cold and fresh Polar Surface Water in the west. Here, we assess how physical processes control nutrient dynamics in the Fram Strait using nitrogen isotope data collected during 2016 and 2018. In Atlantic Waters, a weakly stratified water column and a shallow nitracline reduce nitrogen limitation. To the west, in Polar Surface Water, nitrogen limitation is greater because stronger stratification inhibits nutrient resupply from deeper water and lateral nitrate supply from central Arctic waters is low. A historical hindcast simulation of ocean biogeochemistry from 1970 to 2019 corroborates these findings and highlights a strong link between nitrate supply to Atlantic Waters and the depth of winter mixing, which shoaled during the simulation in response to a local reduction in sea-ice formation. Overall, we find that while the eastern Fram Strait currently experiences seasonal nutrient replenishment and high primary production, the loss of winter sea ice and continued atmospheric warming has the potential to inhibit deep winter mixing and limit primary production in the future.
Plain Language SummaryThe Fram Strait is the main gateway of the Arctic Ocean. In the east, warm, salty waters from the Atlantic flow north into the Arctic basin, and in the west, cold, fresh waters flow south from the central Arctic into the North Atlantic. We examined how changes to the availability of nutrients (which are essential for algae to grow) may limit algae growth in the Fram Strait, both as a result of changes to their source and also how easily the upper ocean mixes nutrients from depth. In the eastern Fram Strait, there is a high availability of nitrate, one of the main nutrients to support algae growth, and winter mixing sustains nutrient supply and biological production in recent decades. However, in the western Fram Strait, the outflowing surface waters do not easily mix with deeper waters and are depleted in nitrate, and nut...