No ‘cure’ within 12 years of diagnosis among breast cancer patients who are diagnosed via mammographic screening: women diagnosed in the West Midlands region of England 1989–2011

Woods, Laura; Morris, Melvin L.; Rachet, Bernard

doi:10.1093/annonc/mdw408

Cited by 13 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…In our study, PBC substantially decreased beyond 1994, but significant excess mortality may remain beyond 10 years after diagnosis. This is in agreement with recent long-term survival studies [ 7 , 18 , 27 ]. Improvements in BC survival between 1985–1994 and 1995–2004 in Spain could be attributable to changes due to BC screening, active in Girona and Tarragona since 1998–1999 [ 3 ], management and treatment [ 6 ].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Long-term crude probabilities of death among breast cancer patients by age and stage: a population-based survival study in Northeastern Spain (Girona–Tarragona 1985–2004)

et al. 2018

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BackgroundWe provide population-based long-term survival indicators of breast cancer patients by quantifying the observed survival, and the probabilities of death due to breast cancer and to other causes by age and tumor stage at diagnosis.MethodsWe included a total of 10,195 female patients diagnosed before 85 years with invasive primary breast cancer in Girona and Tarragona during the periods 1985–1994 and 1995–2004 and followed-up until December 31st 2014. The survival indicators were estimated at 5, 10, 15 and 20 years of follow-up comparing diagnostic periods.ResultsComparing diagnostic periods: I) the probability of death due to other causes did not change; II) the 20-year survival for women diagnosed ≤ 49 years increased 13% (1995–2004 = 68%; 1985–1994:55%), whereas their probability of death due to breast cancer decreased at the same pace (1995–2004 = 29%; 1985–1994 = 42%); III) at 10 years of follow-up, decreases in the probabilities of death due to breast cancer across age groups switched from 11 to 17% resulting in a risk of death reduction of 19% after adjusting by stage. During 1995–2004, the stage-specific 10-year probabilities of death due to breast cancer switched from: 3–6% in stage I, 18–20% in stage II, 34–46% in stage III and surpassed 70% in stage IV beyond 5 years after diagnosis.ConclusionsIn our study, women diagnosed with breast cancer had higher long-term probability to die from breast cancer than from other causes. The improvements in treatment and the lead-time bias in detecting cancer in an early stage resulted in a reduction of 19% in the risk of death between diagnostic periods.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s12094-018-1852-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Long-term crude probabilities of death among breast cancer patients by age and stage: a population-based survival study in Northeastern Spain (Girona–Tarragona 1985–2004)

et al. 2018

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“…46,47 Other outcome measures with applications in cancer control include the number of avoidable premature deaths, 48–53 person-years of life lost, 54,55 disability-adjusted life-years lost, 56 and levels of population “cure”. 57–61 Cancer survival has applications to cancer control and health policy at the state, national and global levels, in both high-income and low-income countries. 62…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global surveillance of trends in cancer survival 2000–14 (CONCORD-3): analysis of individual records for 37 513 025 patients diagnosed with one of 18 cancers from 322 population-based registries in 71 countries

Matsuda²,

et al. 2018

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“…32 For breast cancer, we analyse patients diagnosed at ages 50-84 in 2005-2011, living in the West Midlands (stage missing up to 12%). 33,34 For those two groups of patients, we can develop prediction models that include stage at diagnosis, as well as an indicator of mode of presentation (emergency for lung cancer, screening for breast cancer) and performance status (lung cancer). We predict lung and breast cancer survival up to four years after diagnosis for patients diagnosed in 2010 or 2011, for whom only the first year after diagnosis contributes to model selection and estimation of effects, and project cancer survival for patients diagnosed in 2011 and 2012.…”

Section: High-resolution Data Setting: Illustrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of cancer survival for cohorts of patients most recently diagnosed using multi-model inference

Maringe

Belot

Rachet

2020

Stat Methods Med Res

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Despite a large choice of models, functional forms and types of effects, the selection of excess hazard models for prediction of population cancer survival is not widespread in the literature. We propose multi-model inference based on excess hazard model(s) selected using Akaike information criteria or Bayesian information criteria for prediction and projection of cancer survival. We evaluate the properties of this approach using empirical data of patients diagnosed with breast, colon or lung cancer in 1990–2011. We artificially censor the data on 31 December 2010 and predict five-year survival for the 2010 and 2011 cohorts. We compare these predictions to the observed five-year cohort estimates of cancer survival and contrast them to predictions from an a priori selected simple model, and from the period approach. We illustrate the approach by replicating it for cohorts of patients for which stage at diagnosis and other important prognosis factors are available. We find that model-averaged predictions and projections of survival have close to minimal differences with the Pohar-Perme estimation of survival in many instances, particularly in subgroups of the population. Advantages of information-criterion based model selection include (i) transparent model-building strategy, (ii) accounting for model selection uncertainty, (iii) no a priori assumption for effects, and (iv) projections for patients outside of the sample.

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No ‘cure’ within 12 years of diagnosis among breast cancer patients who are diagnosed via mammographic screening: women diagnosed in the West Midlands region of England 1989–2011

Cited by 13 publications

References 25 publications

Long-term crude probabilities of death among breast cancer patients by age and stage: a population-based survival study in Northeastern Spain (Girona–Tarragona 1985–2004)

Long-term crude probabilities of death among breast cancer patients by age and stage: a population-based survival study in Northeastern Spain (Girona–Tarragona 1985–2004)

Global surveillance of trends in cancer survival 2000–14 (CONCORD-3): analysis of individual records for 37 513 025 patients diagnosed with one of 18 cancers from 322 population-based registries in 71 countries

Prediction of cancer survival for cohorts of patients most recently diagnosed using multi-model inference

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