No escape from COVID-19 consequences: cross-sectoral evaluation of impact on unemployment in Slovakia

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which hit the world in 2020 and is still persisting, has significantly impacted many areas of people's lives. The shutdown anti-pandemic measures implemented by the governments also caused the development of unemployment worldwide. In Slovakia, the restrictions or even complete closure of the operation and activities of the companies caused rising unemployment in some sectors, while in some sectors, the impact was not so substantial. Therefore, the main aim of this study was to analyse and quantify the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on unemployment in various sectors of economic activities in Slovakia. For impact evaluation, a counterfactual approach was used, with analysis of time series development and statistically created counterfactual situation. The analysis was based on real data about the unemployment situation in Slovakia in the period January 2013–April 2021. The results of the study showed that the most affected sectors according to the NACE classification were F – construction, I – accommodation and food service activities and R – arts, entertainment and recreation, showing an increase in unemployment of 89%, 88%, and 65%, respectively. The analysis in this study showed that the impact of a pandemic should be quantified among the sectors, as there are large differences in unemployment caused by the pandemic. From these findings, it is necessary to deduce the different intensities and amount of state aid to companies or employees in these sectors. The results of the study should help to target the policy interventions better to mitigate the impact of the pandemic.

Impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on unemployment in Slovakia: a statistically created counterfactual approach using the time series analysis

“…From the global point of view of the evaluation of the results, even in the case of the Slovak economy, it has been confirmed that the applied antipandemic measures did not have the same impact on all economic sectors. In a study by (Svabova et al, 2022) the authors also focused on the analysis of the pandemic impact on unemployment in individual sectors. This study focused on the period up to April 2021 and identified the most affected sectors as F -construction (on average almost 89% increase in unemployment compared to the prediction), I -accommodation and food service activities (on average 88% increase in unemployment) and R -arts, entertainment and recreation (on average 65% increase).…”