No evidence of widespread decline of snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau over 2000–2015

Wang, Xiaoyue; Wu, Chaoyang; Wang, Huanjiong; Gonsamo, Alemu; Liu, Zhengjia

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-15208-9

Cited by 61 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…The impact of future melt events on livestock mortality will be influenced by the response of seasonal snow cover to continued climate change. There has been an observed increase in Eurasian snow cover over the past two decades, largely attributed to a weakening of the polar vortex [56] although this weakening has not equated to enhanced snow cover in Mongolia, which is consistent with a recent study of snow cover trends over the Tibetan Plateau from 2000-2015 [57]. However, our results indicate increasing trends in anomalous fall melt events over Mongolia, which may inhibit the development of a persistent snowpack and extend the periods of intermittent regional snow cover.…”

Section: Snow and Climate Interactions In Mongoliasupporting

confidence: 88%

Role of Surface Melt and Icing Events in Livestock Mortality across Mongolia’s Semi-Arid Landscape

et al. 2019

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Livestock production is a socioeconomic linchpin in Mongolia and is affected by large-scale livestock die-offs. Colloquially known as dzuds, these die-offs are driven by anomalous climatic events, including extreme cold temperatures, extended snow cover duration (SCD) and drought. As average temperatures across Mongolia have increased at roughly twice the global rate, we hypothesized that increasing cold season surface melt including soil freeze/thaw (FT), snowmelt, and icing events associated with regional warming have become increasingly important drivers of dzud events as they can reduce pasture productivity and inhibit access to grazing. Here, we use daily brightness temperature (T b ) observations to identify anomalous surface melt and icing events across Mongolia from 2003-2016 and their contribution to dzuds relative to other climatic drivers, including winter temperatures, SCD, and drought. We find a positive relationship between surface melt and icing events and livestock mortality during the fall in southern Mongolia and during the spring in the central and western regions. Further, anomalous seasonal surface melt and icing events explain 17-34% of the total variance in annual livestock mortality, with cold temperatures as the leading contributor of dzuds (20-37%). Summer drought showed the greatest explanatory power (43%) but overall had less statistically significant relationships relative to winter temperatures. Our results indicate that surface melt and icing events will become an increasingly important driver of dzuds as annual temperatures and livestock populations are projected to increase in Mongolia.

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Section: Snow and Climate Interactions In Mongoliasupporting

confidence: 88%

Role of Surface Melt and Icing Events in Livestock Mortality across Mongolia’s Semi-Arid Landscape

et al. 2019

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“…The high elevation of the TP (mean elevation exceeding 4,000 m), which is often associated with extremely low temperatures (well below 0 • C), favors the formation and maintenance of snow cover and glaciers (Chu et al, 2014;Lu et al, 2005). However, it is worth noting that the ultimate source for these snow cover and glaciers is the precipitation over the TP (Forsythe et al, 2017;Li et al, 2017;Qin et al, 2006;Wang et al, 2017). During summer, snow cover and glaciers form mainly in the western TP (Chu et al, 2014;Li et al, 2017;Pu & Xu, 2009;Pu et al, 2007), which is characterized by higher altitudes and lower temperatures than other areas of the TP.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Moisture Sources for Wintertime Intense Precipitation Events Over the Three Snowy Subregions of the Tibetan Plateau

et al. 2019

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Wintertime intense precipitation events often lead to severe snow disasters. In this study, a Lagrangian approach is employed to examine the evaporative moisture sources for wintertime intense precipitation events over the three snowy subregions of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during 1979–2016, including the western TP (WTP), south central TP (SCTP), and southeastern TP (SETP). More than 80.0% of the moisture for intense precipitation over each subregion originates from terrestrial areas. Although prevailing westerly winds dominate above the TP and its surrounding areas during winter, half of the precipitation over the three subregions is supplied by evaporation from the south (i.e., the Indian Peninsula). Specifically, evaporation from the Indian Peninsula contributes 68.0%, 65.0%, and 45.0% of the moisture for intense precipitation over the WTP, SCTP, and SETP, respectively. The two primary oceanic moisture source regions for intense precipitation are the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, playing complementary roles in supplying moisture. The relative contributions of the Arabian Sea to intense precipitation over the WTP, SCTP, and SETP are 9.2%, 6.9%, and 1.1%, while those of the Bay of Bengal are 1.1%, 12.1%, and 8.6%. Southerly winds downstream of a cyclonic anomaly over the Indian Peninsula are crucial for the low‐level moisture transport from the south to the Himalayan foothills. Under the combined effects of orographic lifting and favorable large‐scale circulation patterns, moisture ascends further into the three subregions. Changes in the position and intensity of the cyclonic anomaly are particularly crucial to facilitating moisture contributions from the key source regions.

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“…The SCD was defined as the interval between SCO and SCE. This method is one of the easiest ways to calculate snow cover phenology, and can avoid the impact of ephemeral snow [22,24,48].…”

Section: Snow Cover Phenology Metricsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diverse Responses of Vegetation Dynamics to Snow Cover Phenology over the Boreal Region

Xiong

Zhang

Zhao

et al. 2019

Forests

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Snow cover phenology plays an important role in vegetation dynamics over the boreal region, but the observed evidence of this interaction is limited. A comprehensive understanding of the changes in vegetation dynamics and snow cover phenology as well as the interactions between them is urgently needed. To investigate this, we calculated two indicators, the start of the growing season (SOS) and the annual maximum enhanced vegetation index (EVImax), as proxies of vegetation dynamics using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index (EVI). Snow cover duration (SCD) and snow cover end date (SCE) were also extracted from MODIS snow cover datasets. Then, we quantified the spatial-temporal changes in vegetation dynamics and snow cover phenology as well as the relationship between them over the boreal region. Our results showed that the EVImax generally demonstrated an increasing trend, but SOS varied in different regions and vegetation types from 2001 to 2014. The earlier onset of SOS was mainly concentrated in the Siberian boreal region. In the Eurasian boreal region, we observed an advance in the SCE and decrease in the SCD, while in the North American boreal region, the spatial distribution of the trends exhibited substantial heterogeneity. Our results also indicated that the snow cover phenology had significant impacts on the SOS and the EVImax, but the effects varied in different regions, vegetation types, and climate gradients. Our findings provide strong evidence of the interaction between vegetation dynamics and snow cover phenology, and snow cover should be considered when analyzing future vegetation dynamics in the boreal region.

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No evidence of widespread decline of snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau over 2000–2015

Cited by 61 publications

References 53 publications

Role of Surface Melt and Icing Events in Livestock Mortality across Mongolia’s Semi-Arid Landscape

Role of Surface Melt and Icing Events in Livestock Mortality across Mongolia’s Semi-Arid Landscape

Moisture Sources for Wintertime Intense Precipitation Events Over the Three Snowy Subregions of the Tibetan Plateau

Diverse Responses of Vegetation Dynamics to Snow Cover Phenology over the Boreal Region

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