No historical evidence for increased vulnerability of French crop production to climatic hazards

Schauberger, Bernhard; Makowski, David; Ben-Ari, Tamara; Boé, Julien; Ciais, Philippe

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108453

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…By contrast, future water deficit should partially be avoided due to accelerated development in response to warming. It would be interesting to investigate whether this phenomenon could also partly explain why, despite an increase in some weather hazards (especially high temperatures), their impact on yield losses has remained similar in magnitude over recent decades in France 5 , which is not the case in other regions, such as Australia 69 . In particular, our results show that both the extent and frequency of heat stress will increase, while water deficit will decrease only in the near future due to earlier sensitive developmental stages.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Global temperature increase, precipitation patterns change, as well as greater frequency of extreme events such as floods, droughts and heatwaves, already strongly affect wheat cropping across the word 1 – 3 . In Europe, there is a trend towards a slowdown in yield increases from the 1990s onwards, an increase in absolute yield variability 4 , and a slight increase in loss propensities for most annual crops 5 . The critical environmental factors contributing to the stagnation of wheat yields at the French national level include heat stress during grain filling and drought during the stem elongation and grain-filling stages, as identified by 6 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change

Le Roux,

Furusho-Percot,

Deswarte

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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Climate change threatens food security by affecting the productivity of major cereal crops. To date, agroclimatic risk projections through indicators have focused on expected hazards exposure during the crop’s current vulnerable seasons, without considering the non-stationarity of their phenology under evolving climatic conditions. We propose a new method for spatially classifying agroclimatic risks for wheat, combining high-resolution climatic data with a wheat’s phenological model. The method is implemented for French wheat involving three GCM-RCM model pairs and two emission scenarios. We found that the precocity of phenological stages allows wheat to avoid periods of water deficit in the near future. Nevertheless, in the coming decades the emergence of heat stress and increasing water deficit will deteriorate wheat cultivation over the French territory. Projections show the appearance of combined risks of heat and water deficit up to 4 years per decade under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The proposed method provides a deep level of information that enables regional adaptation strategies: the nature of the risk, its temporal and spatial occurrence, and its potential combination with other risks. It’s a first step towards identifying potential sites for breeding crop varieties to increase the resilience of agricultural systems.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change

Le Roux,

Furusho-Percot,

Deswarte

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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show abstract

“…The data set presented here has been used in two previous studies. The first describes the trends in French yields and discusses possible reasons for recently observed stagnation tendencies 4 , while the second identifies major weather-related hazards for crop production in France 5 . For further discussions about the crop performance data we refer to these studies.…”

Section: Background and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

French crop yield, area and production data for ten staple crops from 1900 to 2018 at county resolution

Schauberger

Kato

et al. 2022

Sci Data

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Agricultural performance is influenced by environmental conditions, management decisions and economic circumstances. It is important to quantify their respective contribution to allow for detecting major hazards to production, projecting future yields under climate change and deriving adaptation options. For this purpose, time series of agricultural yields with high spatial and long-term temporal resolution are a primary requisite. Here we present a data set of crop performance in France, one of Europe’s major crop producers. The data set comprises ten crops (barley, maize, oats, potatoes, rapeseed, sugarbeet, sunflower, durum wheat, soft wheat and wine) and covers the years 1900 to 2018. It contains harvested area, production and yield data for all 96 French départements (i.e. counties or NUTS3 level) with a total number of 375,264 data points. Entries until 1988 have been digitized manually from statistical yearbooks. The technical validation indicates a high consistency of the data set within itself and with external resources. The data set may contribute to an enhanced understanding of the manifold influences on agricultural performance.

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Continental lowlands face rising crop vulnerability: structural change in regional climate sensitivity of crop yields, Hungary (Central and Eastern Europe), 1921–2010

Pinke,

Decsi,

Demeter

et al. 2024

Reg Environ Change

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Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is a pillar of global wheat and maize production. However, certain areas within the CEE region have become climate change hotspots, experiencing intensifying water deficits and drought pressure, rising mean and maximum temperatures. This study focuses on the long-term statistical relationships between climatic factors and rain-fed wheat and maize yields for different landscape types in Hungary over 30-year time windows between 1921 and 2010. The relationship between the variances of the detrended climatic parameters and crop yields was tested employing both simple and multifactorial linear models according to landscape types and periods. The sensitivity of wheat yields to spring–summer mean temperature shifted dynamically from the western part of the country to east (from cooler and wetter hilly landscapes to plains) between the periods 1921–1950 and 1981–2010. The cooling observed in summer temperature between the periods 1921–1950 and 1951–1980 supported an increase in wheat yields by an estimated 0.11–0.43 t ha−1 year−1, while the 0.9–1.2 °C warming of May–July temperature may have cut wheat yields by an estimated 0.44–0.56 t ha−1 year−1 in various regions over 1981–2010. That being said, the regional sensitivity of wheat yields to May–July mean temperature did not display substantial differences between the periods 1921–1950 and 1981–2010. Besides negative effects, climate change had a positive impact on wheat yields, since increasing January–March mean temperatures mitigated the negative impact of warming summer temperatures on wheat yields by an estimated 16–34% over 1981–2010. In this 30-year period, increasing mean temperature together with decreasing precipitation explained 46–75% of the variances in maize yields reducing annual maize harvests by an estimated 11.1–12.4% year−1.

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No historical evidence for increased vulnerability of French crop production to climatic hazards

Cited by 9 publications

References 68 publications

Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change

Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change

French crop yield, area and production data for ten staple crops from 1900 to 2018 at county resolution

Continental lowlands face rising crop vulnerability: structural change in regional climate sensitivity of crop yields, Hungary (Central and Eastern Europe), 1921–2010

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