No Zeitenwende (yet): Early Assessment of German Public Opinion Toward Foreign and Defense Policy After Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Abstract

This paper addresses the question of whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a turning point (Zeitenwende) in public opinion on foreign and defense policy in Germany. To this end, we provide a theoretical analysis of how the concept of turning point can be applied to public opinion. We identify the durability of the change in attitudes as well as its significance as necessary conditions to speak of a turning point. In the remainder of the paper, we focus on the argument that changes in different types of orientations are significant to different degrees. Change in core postures is more significant than change in policy attitudes; change in attitudes thematically distant from the Russian invasion is more significant than change in attitudes directly related to the event. Empirically, we present a panel data analysis of attitude change triggered by the Russian invasion. Analysis of data from several waves of the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) panel survey collected before the invasion (2017–2021) and in two waves after (May and October 2022) shows that there were sizable shifts in policy attitudes directly related to the event. Postures remained essentially unchanged, as did thematically distant attitudes. We conclude that there has been no turning point at the level of public opinion (yet).

International threats and support for European security and defence integration: Evidence from 25 countries

“…Applying these insights to the period after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, one of the crucial questions will be how permanent the increase in the perceived threat from Russia will be. Available evidence suggests that deeper underlying postures toward foreign and security policy may not have been significantly affected by Russia's invasion of Ukraine (Mader & Schoen, 2023b), raising the possibility that the shifts in public opinion that polls showed immediately after the invasion began (Mader, 2022;Steiner et al, 2023) will return to their pre-invasion baselines. As other issues (re)claim the attention of policymakers and the public, will the perceived threat also decline?…”

Euronews as a Tool for the Formation of Europe’s Image

“…Chancellor of Germany, O. Scholz, acknowledges that the Ukrainian people are not only defending their homeland but also fighting for the shared values of freedom and democracy (Mader and Schoen 2023). He expresses gratitude to all those who support an independent and peaceful Europe 9 (Euronews 2022).…”

Forces of energy welfare in Central Europe: The Russian war in Ukraine as a game changer

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