Nomogram for predicting overall survival in colorectal cancer with distant metastasis

Liu, Zheng; Xu, Yao; Xu, Ge‐Liang; Baklaushev, Vladimir P.; Чехонин, В. П.; Peltzer, Karl; Ma, Wenjuan; Wang, Xin; Wang, Guowen; Zhang, Chao

doi:10.1186/s12876-021-01692-x

Cited by 58 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 28 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The SEER database is one of the largest and most representative tumor registries in North America. It has collected a large amount of data related to evidence-based medicine, covering nearly 30% of the population in the United States, 16 providing systematic evidence support and valuable first-hand information for clinicians’ evidence-based practice and clinical medical research. In order to accurately and reliably predict the overall survival, researchers have raised the idea of using a prediction model of nomogram.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Acral Lentiginous Melanoma: A Population‐based Study

Yin

Zhao

Yang

et al. 2021

IJGM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background The objective of this study was to establish a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) of patients with acral lentiginous melanoma (ALM). Materials and Methods The study sample was selected from 1785 patients diagnosed with ALM from 2004 to 2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and R software was used to divide patients into the training cohort and validation cohort at a ratio of 7: 3. Stepwise selection method in the Cox regression model was used in the training cohort to select predictive variables to construct the nomogram, and model validation parameters were used in the validation cohort to evaluate the performance of the nomogram. Results The nomogram showed that age at diagnosis had the greatest impact on OS in patients with ALM, followed by AJCC stage, surgical treatment, SEER stage, sex, race, and marital status. The index of concordance, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plots, net reclassification improvement, integrated discrimination improvement, and decision curve analysis demonstrate the good performance of this nomogram. Conclusion The prognostic value of the nomogram is superior to that of the AJCC staging system alone, and it helps clinicians to better predict 3-, 5-, and 8-year OS in patients with ALM.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Acral Lentiginous Melanoma: A Population‐based Study

Yin

Zhao

Yang

et al. 2021

IJGM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In recent years, a series of studies have used the SEER database for nomogram construction and studied its prognostic value in patients with metastatic CRC (29,30). In this study, age, race, grade, N stage, chemotherapy, radiation, surgery, liver metastasis and bone metastasis were used for nomogram construction.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Left 921 [30] 455 [25] 466 [37] 876 [29] 45 [41] 747 [28] 174 [44] 916 [30] 5 [29] Right Large intestine NOS 227 [7] 126 [7] 101 [8] 213 [7] 14 [13] 179 [7] 48 [12] 226 [7] 1 [6] Grade <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.5 Grade I 390 [13] 304 [17] 86 [7] 386 [13] 4 [4] 363 [14] 27 [7] 388 [13] 2 [12] Grade II 4 [24] Grade III 506 [16] 311 [17] 195 [15] 488 [16] 18 [17] 456 [17] 50 [13] 502 [16] 4 [24] Grade IV 155 [5] 95 [5] 60 [5] 153 [5] 2 [2] 142 [5] 13 [3] 154 [5] 1 [6] Unknown 785 [25] 449 [25] 336 [26] 731 [25] 54...…”

Section: Multivariate Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Pattern of distant metastases and predictive nomograms in colorectal mucinous adenocarcinoma: a SEER analysis

Lian¹,

Xu²,

Xiang‐dong³

et al. 2021

J Gastrointest Oncol

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: We evaluated the metastatic patterns and explored the prognostic value of distant metastasis pattern in patients with metastatic colorectal mucinous adenocarcinoma (MC) using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.Methods: Between 2010 and 2015, newly diagnosed colorectal MC patients were selected using the SEER database. Patient prognosis was compared based on the clinicopathological parameters, treatment method, and the site and number of metastatic organs. Cox analyses were used to identify factors associated with overall survival (OS). A nomogram was built to predict the patient's survival. Harrell's concordance index (c-index) and calibration curves were used to analyze the discriminative ability of the prognostic factors.Results: Of 3,088 patients diagnosed with colorectal MC, the liver was the only metastatic organ in 78.4% (997/1,271) of all liver metastasis cases, the lung was the only metastatic organ in 41.0% (164/400) of all lung metastasis cases, bone was the only metastatic organ in 26.6% (29/109) of all bone metastasis cases, and the brain was the only metastatic organ in 23.5% (4/17) of all brain metastasis cases. Compared with the untreated cases, those treated with chemotherapy, surgery, and radiotherapy had better OS (P<0.001).There were marked OS differences (P<0.001) between patients with and without liver and bone metastases.Patients with bone metastasis had the best survival, while those with brain metastasis had the worst survival (P<0.001). Patients with one metastatic site had better prognosis compared to those with two or three (P<0.001). Patients with liver metastasis had the best survival, while those with bone and brain metastasis had the worst survival (P<0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that age <65 years, non-black race, grade I, N0 stage, chemotherapy, radiation, surgery, liver metastasis, and bone metastasis were independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was constructed to predict survival probability. The c-index value was up to 0.745. The calibration plot showed that the nomogram was clinically useful.Conclusions: Metastatic MC (mMC) patients had a characteristic distant metastasis pattern. This study constructed a new and sufficiently accurate prognostic model of mMC based on population-based data.These findings can be utilized to predict prognosis and guide mMC patient management.

show abstract

“…Nomogram, an easy-to-use predictive model, is widely applied in the diagnosis of cancer and prediction of survival. 15 However, most of them focused on overall survival, [16][17][18][19] and no nomogram is specifically created for the prediction of early recurrence in patients with CRC. As far as we know, this is the first clinical study to explore the affecting features of early recurrence among CRC patients.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictive Nomogram for the Prediction of Early Recurrence of Colorectal Cancer

Tang¹,

Chen²,

Tian³

et al. 2021

IJGM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Aim The prognosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) individuals after curative resection is not satisfactory due to the early recurrence. We sought to identify the affecting features of early recurrence in CRC patients. Methods A total of 3500 CRC patients underwent curative resection were retrospectively incorporated into our study. Among them, 246 patients exhibited tumor recurrence: 121 had early recurrence (≤1 year after operation) and 125 had late recurrence (>1 year after operation). A total of 246 CRC patients with recurrence were randomly assigned into the training group (N=177) or validation group (N=69) based on the ratio of 7:3. LASSO COX regression and support vector machine (SVM) were utilized to screen for the significant clinical indexes associated with the presence of early recurrence. Recurrent nomogram was created based on the above informative parameters to predict the probability of early recurrence. Results Proportion of advanced TNM stage, platelet count, systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), CA-199, CA-125, lactate dehydrogenase, total bile acid (TBA), urea nitrogen were significantly higher in early recurrence group compared with that in late recurrence group. Results from LASSO COX regression and support vector machine (SVM) revealed that TNM stage, CA-199, CA125, SII and TBA were strong predictors for the presence of early recurrence among postoperative CRC patients in the training group. The recurrent nomogram based on the five predictors exhibited good predictive performance as calculated by C-index (0.846, 95% CI 0.789–0.902 in the training group and 0.799, 95% CI 0.697–0.902 in the validation group) for the prediction of early recurrence. Moreover, the recurrent nomogram exhibited not only encouraging calibration ability, but also great clinical utility both in the training group and validation group. Conclusion TNM stage, CA-199, CA125, SII and TBA were closely correlated with the presence of early recurrence of CRC patients. The recurrent nomogram held well predictive ability for the identification of CRC patients with early recurrence.

show abstract

Nomogram for predicting overall survival in colorectal cancer with distant metastasis

Cited by 58 publications

References 28 publications

Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Acral Lentiginous Melanoma: A Population‐based Study

Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Acral Lentiginous Melanoma: A Population‐based Study

Pattern of distant metastases and predictive nomograms in colorectal mucinous adenocarcinoma: a SEER analysis

Predictive Nomogram for the Prediction of Early Recurrence of Colorectal Cancer

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About