Nomogram M Prognostic Value for Major Adverse Cardiac and Cerebral Events after Elective Cardiac Surgery with Cardiopulmonary Bypass

Abstract

The objective: to evaluate the prognostic value of Nomogram M for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) and major adverse cardiac and cerebral events (MACCE) after elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass.Subjects and Methods. This is a retrospective cohort study of the Nomogram M prognostic value for MACE and MACCE after elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. 158 patients were enrolled in the study. The prognostic value was estimated using ROC-analysis.Results. The frequency of MACE and MACCE during hospitalization made 5.7% (9 of 158 patients) and 6.3% (10 of 158 patients), respectively. AUC Nomogram M for MACE was 0.888 [0.825; 0.950] (p < 0.001). Cut-off value made 12.5 points (sensitivity – 88.89%, specificity – 83.89%). Odd ratio was 41.67 [95% CI 4.98; 348.61] (p < 0.001).AUC Nomogram M for MACCE was 0.893 [0.834; 0.951] (p < 0.001). Cut-off value made 12.5 points (sensitivity – 90.00%, specificity – 84.46%). Odd ratio was 48.91 [95% CI 5.91; 404.78] (p < 0.001)Conclusion. Nomogram M has a good prognostic value for the occurrence of MACE and MACCE after elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. For MACE sensitivity made 88.89%, and specificity – 83.89%. For MACCE sensitivity was 90.00%, specificity – 84.46%.