Nomogram predicting the probability of spontaneous stone passage in patients presenting with acute ureteric colic

Abstract

To develop a nomogram that could predict spontaneous stone passage (SSP) in patients presenting with acute ureteric colic who are suitable for conservative management. Patients and MethodsA 2517 patient dataset was utilised from an international multicentre cohort study (MIMIC, A Multi-centre Cohort Study Evaluating the role of Inflammatory Markers In Patients Presenting with Acute Ureteric Colic) of patients presenting with acute ureteric colic across 71 secondary care hospitals in the UK, Ireland, Australia, and New Zealand. Inclusion criteria mandated a non-contrast computed tomography of the kidneys, ureters, and bladder. SSP was defined as the 'absence of the need for intervention'. The model was developed using logistic regression and backwards selection (to achieve lowest Akaike's information criterion) in a subset from 2009-2015 (n = 1728) and temporally validated on a subset from 2016-2017 (n = 789).

Renal colic imaging: Are we Choosing Wisely?

“…5 There are other studies examining CT-extracted data associated with clinically significant outcomes (e.g., predicting spontaneous stone passage success rates, safety of ureteral access sheath use, and the ability to access proximal urinary tract calculi with ureteroscopes). 6 Despite relative equivalence of low-dose to standarddose CT for renal colic, to my knowledge, there is no Canadian-based evaluation of standard, low-dose, or very-low-dose CT imaging protocol use and whether that has changed within the era of using "as low as reasonably achievable" radiation. In concert with ongoing efforts to advocate for index US in uncomplicated renal colic, additional efforts to support low-dose CT imaging should be investigated.…”