Nomograms for predicting specific distant metastatic sites and overall survival of colorectal cancer patients: A large population‐based real‐world study

Mo, Shaobo; Cai, Xin; Zhou, Zheng; Li, Yaqi; Hu, Xiang; Ma, Xiaolong; Zhang, Long; Cai, Sanjun; Peng, Junjie

doi:10.1002/ctm2.20

Cited by 35 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Overall, 541,244 CRC cases were included, involving 1547 patients diagnosed with BM [ 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 ]. The overall average incidence of BM in CRC patients was 2.10% (95%CI 0.98–3.22) ranging from 0.1% up to 11.5% [ 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 ]. Fifty-seven percent of patients were male and 43% were female ( Figure 2 and Table 2 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Brain Metastases from Colorectal Cancer: A Systematic Review of the Literature and Meta-Analysis to Establish a Guideline for Daily Treatment

Müller

Köhler

Hendricks

et al. 2021

Cancers

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Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common malignancy worldwide. Most patients with metastatic CRC develop liver or lung metastases, while a minority suffer from brain metastases. There is little information available regarding the presentation, treatment, and overall survival of brain metastases (BM) from CRC. This systematic review and meta-analysis includes data collected from three major databases (PubMed, Cochrane, and Embase) based on the key words “brain”, “metastas*”, “tumor”, “colorectal”, “cancer”, and “malignancy”. In total, 1318 articles were identified in the search and 86 studies matched the inclusion criteria. The incidence of BM varied between 0.1% and 11.5%. Most patients developed metastases at other sites prior to developing BM. Lung metastases and KRAS mutations were described as risk factors for additional BM. Patients with BM suffered from various symptoms, but up to 96.8% of BM patients were asymptomatic at the time of BM diagnosis. Median survival time ranged from 2 to 9.6 months, and overall survival (OS) increased up to 41.1 months in patients on a multimodal therapy regimen. Several factors including age, blood levels of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), multiple metastases sites, number of brain lesions, and presence of the KRAS mutation were predictors of OS. For BM diagnosis, MRI was considered to be state of the art. Treatment consisted of a combination of surgery, radiation, or systemic treatment.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Besides LM, bone metastases in particular were described as a risk factor [ 8 , 47 , 52 , 53 ]. Mo et al and Yang X.-H. et al identified a positive carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level as a risk factor for developing BM [ 7 , 13 ]. The primary CRC side might also have an association with an increased risk of developing BM.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Brain Metastases from Colorectal Cancer: A Systematic Review of the Literature and Meta-Analysis to Establish a Guideline for Daily Treatment

Müller

Köhler

Hendricks

et al. 2021

Cancers

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“…De nitely, effective and precise prognostic prediction in patients with malignancy is important for clinical decision-making and scienti c research. Previous studies had reported that factors such as age, sex, CEA, tumor size, T and N stage, metastatic sites, and treatment were signi cant predictors related to survival outcome of mCRC patients [10]. Intuitive and convenient prognostic tools are what clinicians need.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Unlike it was clear that age was a prognostic factor in mCRC patients [21], whether sex, race, and tumor size had effects on the prognoses of patients with mCRC is still controversial. Some studies reported that white descent, male sex, larger primary tumor size predicts poorer survival [10,22,23].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition to prognostic nomograms, the present study identi ed several risk factors associated with LM from CRC. Combined with nomogram for prediction of the risk of LM from CRC [10,20], clinicians and researchers can effectively identify patients at high risk of LM and monitor follow-up computed tomography closely. Moreover, we con rmed that different metastatic sites would affect the prognosis of CRC patients.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting Survival Outcome of Patients With Colorectal Cancer and Only Lung Metastasis: A Population-Based Real-World Study

Tang

Zhou

Bai

2020

Preprint

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Background: Patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) have a poor prognosis, but lung metastasis (LM) generally has a relatively desirable survival outcome. However, clinicians have had few tools for estimating the probability of survival in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) and only LM (OLM). The present study aimed to develop nomograms estimating survival probability for patients with CRC and OLM.Methods: Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database of patients with CRC between 2010 and 2014 were retrieved for retrospective analysis. Patients with OLM diagnosed between 2010 and 2014, except for 2012 (n = 1,118) were used to conduct multivariate Cox analysis to identify independent prognostic factors. Nomograms estimating 1- and 3-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were developed. The nomograms were internally validated for concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and were also externally validated with independent patients diagnosed in 2012 (n = 261).Results: Age, marital status, tumor location, tumor size, T and N stage, CEA, tumor deposit, histological grade, primary or metastatic tumor surgery, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and income were found to be independently associated with OS and/or CSS. The nomograms were constructed based on these prognostic factors. The C-index were high in internal validation (0.736 for OS and 0.741 for CSS) and external validation (0.656 for OS and 0.663 for CSS). Internal and external calibration plots and ROC curves demonstrated a good agreement between actual observation and nomogram prediction.Conclusions: The nomograms individually predict OS and CSS of patients with CRC and OLM and could aid in the personalized prognostic evaluation and clinical decision-making.

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Establishment and Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting Postoperative Overall Survival in Advanced Stage III–IV Colorectal Cancer Patients

Lou,

Luo,

Huang

et al. 2024

Cancer Medicine

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BackgroundMost colorectal cancer (CRC) patients are at an advanced stage when they are first diagnosed. Risk factors for predicting overall survival (OS) in advanced stage CRC patients are crucial, and constructing a prognostic nomogram model is a scientific method for survival analysis.MethodsA total of 2956 advanced stage CRC patients were randomised into training and validation groups at a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to screen risk factors for OS and subsequently construct a prognostic nomogram model for predicting 1‐, 3‐, 5‐, 8‐ and 10‐year OS of advanced stage CRC patients. The performance of the model was demonstrated by the area under the curve (AUC) values, calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). Kaplan–Meier curves were used to plot the survival probabilities for different strata of each risk factor.ResultsThere was no statistically significant difference (p > 0.05) in the 32 clinical variables between patients in the training and validation groups. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses demonstrated that age, location, TNM, chemotherapy, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, MSH6, CEA, CA199, CA125 and CA724 were risk factors for OS. We estimated the AUC values for the nomogram model to predict 1‐, 3‐, 5‐, 8‐ and 10‐year OS, which in the training group were 0.826 (95% CI: 0.807–0.845), 0.836 (0.819–0.853), 0.839 (0.820–0.859), 0.835 (0.809–0.862) and 0.825 (0.779–0.870) respectively; in the validation group, the corresponding AUC values were 0.819 (0.786–0.852), 0.831 (0.804–0.858), 0.830 (0.799–0.861), 0.815 (0.774–0.857) and 0.802 (0.723–0.882) respectively. Finally, the 1‐, 3‐, 5‐, 8‐ and 10‐year OS rates for advanced stage CRC patients were 73.4 (71.8–75.0), 49.5 (47.8–51.4), 43.3 (41.5–45.2), 40.1 (38.1–41.9) and 38.6 (36.6–40.8) respectively.ConclusionWe constructed and validated an original nomogram for predicting the postoperative OS of advanced stage CRC patients, which can help facilitates physicians to accurately assess the individual survival of postoperative patients and identify high‐risk patients.

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Nomograms for predicting specific distant metastatic sites and overall survival of colorectal cancer patients: A large population‐based real‐world study

Cited by 35 publications

References 25 publications

Brain Metastases from Colorectal Cancer: A Systematic Review of the Literature and Meta-Analysis to Establish a Guideline for Daily Treatment

Brain Metastases from Colorectal Cancer: A Systematic Review of the Literature and Meta-Analysis to Establish a Guideline for Daily Treatment

Predicting Survival Outcome of Patients With Colorectal Cancer and Only Lung Metastasis: A Population-Based Real-World Study

Establishment and Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting Postoperative Overall Survival in Advanced Stage III–IV Colorectal Cancer Patients

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