Non-additionality, Overestimation of Supply, and Double Counting in Offset Programs: Insight for the Mexican Carbon Market

Abstract

Mexico utilizes an emissions trading system as one of its carbon pricing instruments. Mexico’s planning, like that of other countries, includes flexible mechanisms such as offsets. Offsets allow market participants to compensate for their emissions through mitigation projects. Offsetting via participation in the Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation was fundamental to the Kyoto Protocol. In contrast, the Paris Agreement is ambiguous about its use. Other national or regional offset programs, such as the EU, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, or Korea, work within emission trading systems. Subnationally, the California-Quebec program has been in effect since 2014. As Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) are global, offsetting allows market participants to compensate for their emissions through mitigation projects, whether domestically or abroad. Given their global scope, such programs present a wide variability in quality. This chapter presents an overview of offset programs worldwide and argues that non-additionality, overestimated supply, and double counting are their three most pressing quality problems. This analysis sheds light upon the nascent Mexican system and its offset program.

Expert review of the science underlying nature-based climate solutions

“…Some broad pathways may have better defined sub-pathways within them, with a smaller potential scale of impact but potentially lower uncertainty (for example, macroalgae harvest cycling). Poorly enacted NbCS actions and/or crediting methodologies at project scales may result in loss of benefits even from high-ranking pathways [22][23][24] and attention to implementation should be paramount. Conversely, strong, careful project-scale methodologies may make lower readiness pathways beneficial for a given site.…”

“…On the basis of the expert elicitation survey and review of the scientific literature, we are concerned that large-scale implementation of less scientifically well-founded NbCS pathways in mitigation plans may undermine net GHG budget planning; those pathways require more study before they can be confidently promoted at broad scales and life-cycle analyses to integrate system-level emissions when calculating totals. The expert elicitation judgements suggest a precautionary approach to scaling lower confidence pathways until the scientific foundations are strengthened, especially for NbCS pathways with insufficient measurement and monitoring 10,24,25 or poorly understood or measured net GHG mitigation potentials 16,[26][27][28] . While the need to implement more NbCS pathways for reducing GHG emissions and removing carbon from the atmosphere is urgent, advancing the implementation of poorly quantified pathways (in relation to their GHG mitigation efficacy) could give the false impression that they can balance ongoing, fossil emissions, thereby undermining overall support for more viable NbCS pathways.…”

Fenntarthatósági átmenet: kihívások és innovatív megoldások : Nemzetközi tudományos konferencia a Magyar Tudomány Ünnepe alkalmából

“…A kvótakereskedelmi rendszer 10%-os ellentételezést (offsetting) tesz lehetővé, melynek keretében a vállalatok kibocsátáscsökkentési kötelezettségeik 10%-át mitigációs projektek segítségével teljesíthetik (López-Vallejo, 2022). Ez valamilyen mértékben lehetővé teszi a földhasználati és erdészeti szektorban az ökoszisztémák segítségével megvalósított széndioxid megkötések bevonását a klímavédelmi célok teljesítésébe.…”

Az új mexikói kvótakereskedelmi rendszer és erdészeti vonatkozásai

“…Az EU ETS és a Mexikói Kvótakereskedelmi Rendszer összehasonlítását a 2. táblázatban mutatjuk be. A kvótakereskedelmi rendszer 10%-os ellentételezést (offsetting) tesz lehetővé, melynek keretében a vállalatok kibocsátáscsökkentési kötelezettségeik 10%-át mitigációs projektek segítségével teljesíthetik (López-Vallejo, 2022). Ez valamilyen mértékben lehetővé teszi a földhasználati és erdészeti szektorban az ökoszisztémák segítségével megvalósított széndioxid megkötések bevonását a klímavédelmi célok teljesítésébe.…”