Non-linear regional weather-growth relationships indicate limited adaptability of the eastern Baltic Scots pine

Matisons, Roberts; Elferts, Didzis; Krišāns, Oskars; Schneck, Volker; Gärtner, Holger; Bast, Alexander; Wojda, Tomasz; Kowalczyk, J.; Jansons, Āris

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118600

Cited by 20 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 71 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Such a model allows an estimation of responses according to the shifting baseline of the independent variable(s). Previous studies have shown such an approach to be efficient for the analysis of heterogeneric ecological data representing spatiotemporal gradients (e.g., tree-ring networks) [11,12,25,27]. The indices of the residual chronologies were used as the response variable.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Within the studied region, which included the southern margin of lowland distribution of spruce [36,50], phenotypical plasticity exceeded genetic specialization of weather-growth sensitivity (Table 4), implying some adaptability of populations in the medium term [4,18,30,42,68]. The local genetic specialization, however, was weaker compared to that of Scots pine from the same localities [11], likely due to the common sensitivity of Norway spruce to water shortage [52] and its legacy effects [46]. Still, local specialization has likely mediated regional growth responses [13], as suggested by the locally specific correlations (Figure 2), thus supporting the hypothesis.…”

Section: Plasticity and Stationarity Of Weather-growth Relationshipsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Although assisted gene flow/migration has been advised [7], a high plasticity of local metapopulations of trees has also been observed [6,[8][9][10], advocating conservative forest management, particularly under hemiboreal conditions [1,6]. Accordingly, comprehensive information on the sensitivity of trees to environmental fluctuations, such as weather conditions and shifting climate, is essential [11][12][13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The ecological responses of quantitative traits across the environmental gradient are bell-shaped and, hence, nonlinear per se, though their plasticity (width and rigidity) can vary among species, populations, and genotypes [11,14,[25][26][27]. Accordingly, close-to-linear responses can be observed only in distinct parts of a gradient [14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A generalization of responses accounting for their nonlinearity across substantial parts of the spatiotemporal climatic gradient(s) is therefore essential for more reliable predictions [12,22,26,27]. Analysis of the climatic rather than spatial gradient provides better insight into the growth responses of trees under a changing climate (shifting climatic gradient) [11,25,27,31]. Such studies agree on predicting disproportional and/or heterogeneous responses to a changing climate across regional climatic gradients [12][13][14]22,32].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Nonlinear Weather–Growth Relationships Suggest Disproportional Growth Changes of Norway Spruce in the Eastern Baltic Region

Matisons

Elferts

Krišāns

et al. 2021

Forests

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) is predicted to decrease its abundance in the Eastern Baltic region as a result of climatic changes, and this process is already explicit at the southern limit of species lowland distribution. Still, there are uncertainties about the growth potential of Norway spruce within the region due to the plasticity of local populations. In this regard, an assessment of regional weather–growth responses, assuming a nonlinearity of the ecological relationship, can aid in the clarification of uncertainties regarding growth. Nonlinear regional weather–growth relationships for Norway spruce were assessed based on tree-ring widths from 22 stands spreading from Southern Finland to Northern Germany using dendrochronological methods and a generalized additive mixed model. Temporal and spatial stationarity of local linear weather–growth relationships was evaluated. Considering the drought sensitivity of Norway spruce, meteorological variables related to the summer moisture regime were the main predictors of radial increment, though conditions in winter and spring had complementary effects. Generally, the linear weather–growth relationships were spatially and temporary nonstationary, with some exceptions in Poland and Northern Germany. Explicit local specifics in the linear weather–growth relationships, which are common in the marginal parts of species’ distribution, were observed in Estonia, Latvia, and Poland. The estimated regional weather–growth relationships were mostly nonlinear, implying disproportional responses to climatic changes, particularly to intensifying drought conditions across the studied climatic gradient. Still, the responses to winter temperature suggested that warming might contribute to growth. The estimated linear and nonlinear growth responses indicate strict limitation by drought conditions, implying reductions of increment due to climatic changes southward from Latvia, suggesting the necessity for proactive management. Nevertheless, in the northern part of the analyzed region, the projected climatic changes appear favorable for growth of Norway spruce in the near future.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%