Lubrication failures of axle box bearings can lead to accidents, such as bearing burnout and hot axle cutting. Presently, the modeling of the vehicle-track system dynamics rarely considers the nonlinear contact load of axle box bearings, and this leads to imperfection in the vehicle-track system dynamics calculation. And then, the load distribution and lubrication characteristics of axle box bearings are difficult to obtain. Therefore, in this paper, we fully consider the time-varying nonlinear contact load of bearings and track irregularity in establishing the bearing-wheel-rail system coupling-dynamics model. The dynamic response of axle box bearings is obtained by taking the vertical, strong impact-time-varying load on the carrying saddles as the external excitation. The load-balance equation of dynamic pressure lubrication is then obtained, according to the slicing method of bearing rollers. Finally, the elastohydrodynamic lubrication (EHL) model of axle box bearings is established considering thermal and scale effects. The results show that the central film thickness under thermal EHL was decreased by 13.61% compared with that under isothermal EHL. As the velocity of the contact pair increases, the thickness difference between thermal and isothermal EHL became larger. Thermal effects should be considered in the EHL model, in order to truly reflect the characteristics of EHL under a high speed.