Non-state actors and conflict management in an era of grey zone conflict

The Legal Status of Alien Combatants in the Ukrainian Armed Forces Within the Context of the International Judicial Reality

“…In this case, the Russian Federation is behaving as expected, as a country that is highly centralised and an extraordinary user of propaganda (Belo, 2020). Ukraine was unable to prevent the above, despite its efforts and even the adoption of a law that at least tried to mitigate Russia's tendencies (Carment, Nikolko and Belo, 2018), and also the actions of the international community (Carment, Nikolko and Belo, 2019).…”

The merits and limitation of incentive theory in application to gray zone conflicts.

“…During the 1990s the bulk of armed conflicts was interstate conflicts (Smith, 2003; Wallensteen & Sollenberg, 2001), but that is no longer the case. As argued by Hoffman (2007); Mazarr (2015); Carment and Belo (2018), and Belo (2019), engagement in what was traditionally considered to be the conventional war, has become cost prohibitive for states in terms of political capital, human life, and material assets. This circumstance contributed to the emergence of gray zone conflicts, which have become the dominant format of interaction between geopolitical opponents.…”

“…For example, nations with leaders possessing various personalities and contrasting regime types often engage in similar foreign policy behavior. Russia, China, and the United States, autocracies and a democracy, respectively, choose to engage in low-intensity coercion through economic blackmail, targeted cyber space campaigns, use of propaganda, and reliance on nonstate actors for armed operations—often to similar degrees (Carment et al, 2018). Moreover, Waltz (1979) and Mearsheimer (1994) note that concern for maximizing relative gains on the international stage, whether in the military or economic spheres, is a key consideration in the foreign policy decision making of nations vis-à-vis adversaries.…”