Non-stationary climate–salmon relationships in the Gulf of Alaska

Litzow, Michael A.; Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Puerta, Patricia; Wettstein, J. J.; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Opiekun, Michael

doi:10.1098/rspb.2018.1855

Cited by 84 publications

(127 citation statements)

References 47 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

119

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This hypothesis is supported by observations of declining collinearity among local environmental variables in the era of weaker Aleutian Low variance (Litzow et al. ). This apparent nonstationary collinearity among physical variables was accompanied by nonstationary population responses to climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 64%

“…Following a previously recognized shift in North Pacific climate that occurred in 1988/1989 (Hare and Mantua ), low‐frequency temporal variance in sea level pressure anomalies (SLPa) associated with the Aleutian Low declined (Litzow et al. ). This decline in variance was apparently part of a basin‐scale change in climate patterns, still imperfectly understood, that involved changing atmospheric teleconnections between the tropical and extra‐tropical North Pacific (Di Lorenzo et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, after the decline in collinearity among local environmental variables, these populations showed markedly weaker responses to the PDO and SST (Litzow et al. , Puerta et al. ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Nonstationary environmental and community relationships in the North Pacific Ocean

Litzow

Ciannelli

Puerta

et al. 2019

Ecology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Common approaches for summarizing multivariate environmental or community data assume that relationships among variables are stationary over time, and this assumption is often not tested. Here we test the hypothesis that relationships among environmental and community time series are nonstationary in the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem (North Pacific Ocean) over multidecadal time scales. Dynamic factor analysis (DFA) is applied to environmental and community data from before and after 1988/1989, corresponding to the timing of an abrupt decline in temporal variance of the Aleutian Low atmospheric pattern, a leading driver of Gulf of Alaska climate. Results show that covariance among local atmosphere and ocean environmental variables weakened simultaneous to the decline in Aleutian Low variance. At the same time, community-wide responses of 14 fish and crustacean populations to physical forcing weakened, as indicated by nonstationary environment-biology regression coefficients. In line with theoretical predictions, this loss of a shared response to environmental variability was accompanied by weakening community covariance. Individual populations also showed nonstationary relationships with shared trends of community variability. We conclude that assumptions of fixed environmental and community relationships are likely to produce mistaken inference in this ecosystem. Similar concerns may apply in other ecosystems subject to changing climate patterns.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 64%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Nonstationary environmental and community relationships in the North Pacific Ocean

Litzow

Ciannelli

Puerta

et al. 2019

Ecology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…For Ontario and California, Ouarda et al () note AMO‐, ENSO‐, and PDO‐related nonstationarities for rainfall intensity–duration–frequency relationships, which bears implications for river flood management. For successful prediction of the level of salmon recruitment to Alaskan rivers, Litzow et al () also highlight the importance of understanding the time‐varying association between modes of climate variability and North Pacific Ocean climate. They identified the late 1980s as a period when predictions based on the covariant behaviour of the PDO and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation broke down most likely due a transition of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures from a cool (negative PDO) to warm (positive PDO) phase, which influenced weather patterns in the region of the Aleutian Low.…”

Section: Modes Of Climate Variability and River Flowmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate seen in this way is clearly important to rivers and their physical and ecological processes as the climate of a location, including its mean, variability, trend, and extreme characteristics, provides the setting for a range of possible hydrological responses. Further, as climate is nonstationary (Litzow et al, ; Ouarda, Yousef, & Charron, ; Razavi, Elshorbagy, Wheater, & Sauchyn, ; Rodriguez‐Fonseca et al, ), the relationship between climate and river systems may alter over time, such that there may be no true hydrologically normal state in river systems. Moreover, climate, embodying the thermodynamic/hydrodynamic setting of a place, may change from near instantaneous to millennial time scales, such that river systems are in a continued state of climate‐dependent flux, all other factors such as geological/tectonic and anthropogenic influences being equal.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and rivers

McGregor

2019

River Research & Apps

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Over the last few decades as hydrologists have slowly raised their line of sight above the watershed boundary, it has become increasingly recognised that what happens in the atmosphere, as a major source of moisture for the terrestrial branch of the hydrological cycle, can strongly influence river dynamics at a range of spatial and temporal scales. Notwithstanding this, there is still a tendency for some in the river research community to restrict their gaze to the river channel or floodplain. However, Geoff Petts, the person to which this special issue is dedicated, understood well and widely encouraged a holistic view of river catchment processes. This included an acknowledgment of the role of climate, in its broadest sense, in shaping what happens within and without the river channel. The purpose of this paper therefore is to offer a broad overview of the role of some aspects of climate science in advancing knowledge in river research. Topics to be addressed include the role of climate in influencing river flow regimes, a consideration of the large‐scale climate mechanisms that drive hydrological variability within river basins at interannual to decadal timescales and atmospheric rivers and their link to surface hydrology. In reviewing these topics, a number of key knowledge gaps have emerged including attributing the causes of river flow regime changes to any one particular cause, the nonstationary and asymmetric forcing of river regimes by modes of climate variability and establishing links between atmospheric rivers, and terrestrial river channel processes, fluvial habitats, and ecological change.

show abstract

Environmental drivers of demography and potential factors limiting the recovery of an endangered marine top predator

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Understanding what drives changes in wildlife demography is fundamental to the conservation and management of depleted or declining populations, though making inference about the intrinsic and extrinsic factors that influence survival and reproduction remains challenging. Here we use mark-resight data from 2000 to 2018 to examine the effects of environmental variability on age-specific survival and natality for the endangered western distinct population segment (wDPS) of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska, USA. Though this population has been studied extensively over the last four decades, the causes of divergent abundance trends that have been observed across the wDPS range remain unknown. We developed a Bayesian multievent mark-resight model that accounts for female reproductive state uncertainty. Annual survival probabilities for male pups (0.44; 0.36-0.53), female yearlings (0.63; 0.49-0.73), and male yearlings (0.62; 0.51-0.71) born in the western portion of the wDPS range, estimated here for the first time, were lower than those in the eastern portion of the wDPS range, estimated as: male pups (0.69; 0.65-0.74), female yearlings (0.76; 0.71-0.81), and male yearlings (0.71; 0.65-0.78). There was a higher proportion of young female breeders in the western portion of the range, but overall natality was lower (0.69; 0.47-0.96) than in the eastern portion of the range (0.80; 0.74-0.84). Additionally, pup mass had a positive effect on pup survival in the eastern portion of the range and a negative effect in the western portion of the range, potentially due to earlier weaning of heavier pups. Local-and basin-scale oceanographic features such as the Aleutian Low, the Arctic Oscillation Index, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, chlorophyll concentration, upwelling, and wind in certain seasons were correlated with vital rates. However, drawing strong inferences from these correlations is challenging given that relationships between ocean conditions and an adaptive top predator in a dynamic ecosystem are exceedingly complex. This study provides the first demographic rate estimates for the western portion of the range where abundance estimates continue to decline. These results will advance efforts to identify factors driving

show abstract

Non-stationary climate–salmon relationships in the Gulf of Alaska

Cited by 84 publications

References 47 publications

Nonstationary environmental and community relationships in the North Pacific Ocean

Nonstationary environmental and community relationships in the North Pacific Ocean

Climate and rivers

Environmental drivers of demography and potential factors limiting the recovery of an endangered marine top predator

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About