Non-tariff Measure Estimations in Different Impact Assessments

Bekkers, Eddy; Rojas‐Romagosa, Hugo

doi:10.1017/9781108751698.005

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…real GDP and income changes) as our comparison variable. 22 We then relate the discrepancies in these overall economic effects to the trade cost reductions assumed in each study.…”

Section: Relation Between Trade Cost Reductions and The Expected Econmentioning

confidence: 99%

Non-Tariff Measure Estimations in Different Impact Assessments

Bekkers

Rojas‐Romagosa

2018

SSRN Journal

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The reduction of non-tariff measures (NTMs) has become the key policy variable to evaluate modern and deep free trade agreements (FTAs), such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). In this chapter we overview the two main approaches to estimating NTM reductions associated with the implementation of FTAs. We then detail how these reductions are estimated in different impact assessment studies of TTIP, we compare and analyse the main differences in these estimations and how they affect the overall economic impact of TTIP. We find that accounting for differences in the expected NTM reductions can explain a large share of the discrepancies regarding the overall potential economic effects between different impact assessments of TTIP.

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“…real GDP and income changes) as our comparison variable. 22 We then relate the discrepancies in these overall economic effects to the trade cost reductions assumed in each study.…”

Section: Relation Between Trade Cost Reductions and The Expected Econmentioning

confidence: 99%

Non-Tariff Measure Estimations in Different Impact Assessments

Bekkers

Rojas‐Romagosa

2018

SSRN Journal

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“…Second, the coefficients on the impact of the SDR disciplines on trade acquired from the gravity model are converted into ad-valorem equivalents (AVE) reductions in services trade costs based on standard formula (for example in Bekkers and Rojas-Romagosa (2019)). Our calculations indicate an average AVE cost reduction of 9% across various service sectors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Trade Effects of a New Agreement on Services Domestic Regulation

2024

WTO Working Papers

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In this paper, we project the impact of the implementation of a Joint Statement Initiative (JSI) on Services Domestic Regulation (SDR). We proceed in three steps. First, we include the WTO SDR Index, a binary score of SDR implementation in 23 sectors and 86 economies, in a gravity equation, estimated with the balance of payments services trade. We take into account domestic services trade to identify the impact of the importer-specific SDR Index by interacting the SDR Index with a border dummy, following an established methodology in the gravity literature. The estimation generates a significant impact of the SDR Index in a series of regressions pooled across all sectors, accounting for other determinants of services trade. Second, we map the estimates together with projected changes in the SDR Index into ad valorem equivalent trade cost changes under the implementation of the negotiated outcome on SDR. Estimated trade cost reductions are 10%, 14%, and 8.5% in lower-middleincome, upper-middle-income, and high-income countries respectively. In dollars, the estimated trade cost reduction of $127 Bn is similar to earlier OECD estimates of the trade cost reduction of the SDR of about $150 Bn. Third, the WTO Global Trade Model, a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, is employed to project the economic effects of the SDR outcome which are modelled as resourcesaving reductions in iceberg trade costs. Simulations indicate that global income would increase by 0.3% in the long run (over 10 years), while global exports are projected to rise by 0.8%. The projected gains are largest in lower-and upper-middle-income countries while impacts on non-participants are projected to be marginally positive.

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“… A detailed explanation of how NTMs are estimated in each study is provided in Bekkers and Rojas‐Romagosa (). This study, in addition, also evaluates and compares the different estimation results. …”

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The welfare effects of free trade agreements in quantitative trade models: A comparison of studies about Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

Bekkers

Rojas‐Romagosa

2018

World Economy

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Notes:A. Overall trade-weighted average percentage iceberg trade cost reductions in main scenario, taken from Table 2. B. Direct and indirect spillovers to third countries. C. It is a unique value in single-sector models and a trade-weighted sectoral average in multisector models. D. Main economic outcome of each study, all in percentage changes. 1. Spillover effects only in alternative scenarios. 2. Non-HT: nonhomothetic preferences. HT: homothetic preferences. 3. The study also contains an alternative model with endogenous labour supply, but the welfare results presented from the main scenario are based on the model with fixed labour supply. 4. Unweighted EU average. 5. This study also presents welfare effects with welfare defined as a weighted average of changes in real income and unemployment. Source: Own elaboration based on inputs from the referred studies. BEKKERS AND ROJAS-ROMAGOSA | 89 2 | GENERAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SG AND CGE MODELS There are strong similarities between CGE models (see Dixon & Jorgenson, 2012, for an overview) and the recent class of SG models (cf. Arkolakis, Costinot, & Rodr ıguez-Clare, 2012;3 The implications of using actual against fitted import, export and domestic expenditure shares in the baseline calibration are further explained in Section 4.1. 4 In Section 5.1.3, we discuss these differences further, arguing that this extensive margin effect is problematic. 5 The detailed analysis to arrive at this results is explained in Section 5. 6 We concentrate on the effects through NTMs and leave the effects of tariff reductions mostly aside. The reason is twofold.First, tariff effects are very limited given that existing tariff levels are relatively low between the TTIP partners. Second, the studies do not differ much in the impact of TTIP through tariff reductions.

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Non-tariff Measure Estimations in Different Impact Assessments

Cited by 4 publications

References 133 publications

Non-Tariff Measure Estimations in Different Impact Assessments

Non-Tariff Measure Estimations in Different Impact Assessments

The Trade Effects of a New Agreement on Services Domestic Regulation

The welfare effects of free trade agreements in quantitative trade models: A comparison of studies about Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

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