Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease burden: Australia, 2019–2030

Abstract

Background and Aim: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD burden in Australia through 2030. Methods: A model was used to estimate fibrosis progression, primary liver cancer, and liver deaths among the Australian NAFLD population, with changes in incident NAFLD cases based on long-term trends for changes in the prevalence of obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections, including surveillance data for the incidence of liver cancer. Results: Prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 25% from the current burden (5 551 000 [4 748 000-6 306 000] cases in 2019) to 7 024 000 [5 838 000-7 886 000] cases in 2030. The projected increase in the number of NASH cases (40%) was greater than that of NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase up to 85% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths are estimated to increase 85% from 1900 (1100-3300) deaths in 2019 to 3500 (2100-6100) deaths in 2030. Conclusions: Restraining growth of the obese and diabetic populations, along with potential therapeutic options, will be essential for mitigating disease burden.

A New Endemic of Concomitant Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Chronic Hepatitis B

“…With an alarming increase in the number of patients with concomitant NAFLD and CHB [ 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 ], there is an urgent need to evaluate the interactions between these two diseases and the roles of hepatic steatosis (HS) and NAFLD on the prognosis of hepatitis B. There are also some controversial reports on the steatogenic effects of HBV in in vitro models.…”

“… Regional prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) diagnosed by radiological imaging (Pubmed and MEDLINE database from 1989 to 2015). Pooled prevalence was calculated by weighting the individual study estimates by inverse of their variation [ 11 , 20 ] (top panel). Global prevalence of chronic hepatitis B.…”

“…According to a meta-analysis by Hui et al including 17 studies, the prevalence of hepatic steatosis was about 25 to 30% among patients with CHB [19]. [11,20] (top panel). Global prevalence of chronic hepatitis B.…”

Detecting non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and risk factors in health databases: accuracy and limitations of the ICD-10-AM

“… 2 While the proportion of patients admitted with NAFLD/NASH-related cirrhosis increased from 3.6% in 2008–2010 to 6.0% in 2014–2016 (p<0.00001), 2 this is likely an under-representation of disease prevalence based on observational and cohort studies, as well as modelling of NAFLD in Australia. 3 4 …”

Metabolic associated fatty liver disease: Addressing a new era in liver transplantation

“…Metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), previously termed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), has emerged as the most common cause of liver disease globally[ 1 ]. With the expanding epidemic of obesity worldwide[ 2 ], MAFLD is becoming an increasingly burdensome condition, both clinically and economically[ 3 , 4 ]. The global prevalence of MAFLD was estimated at 25% in 2013, rising from 15% in 2005[ 1 ].…”