Nongovernmental Campaign Communication Providing Ballot Secrecy Assurances Increases Turnout: Results From Two Large-Scale Experiments

Abstract

Doubts about the integrity of ballot secrecy persist and depress political participation among the American public. Prior experiments have shown that official communications directly addressing these doubts increase turnout among recently registered voters who had not previously voted, but evaluations of similar messages sent by nongovernmental campaigns have yielded only suggestive effects. We build on past research and analyze two large-scale field experiments where a private nonpartisan nonprofit group sought to increase turnout by emphasizing ballot secrecy assurances alongside a reminder to vote in a direct mail voter mobilization campaign during the 2014 midterm election. Our main finding is that a private group’s mailing increases turnout by about 1 percentage point among recently registered nonvoters. This finding is precisely estimated and robust across state political contexts, but is not statistically distinguishable from the effect of a standard voter mobilization appeal. Implications and directions for future research are discussed.

The effect on turnout of campaign mobilization messages addressing ballot secrecy concerns: A replication experiment

“…First, we assess the similarity of the control group in this study to comparable control groups in experimental studies fielded at the same time. Specifically, we compare the baseline turnout rate in the control group in this study (in Mississippi) to state-specific control group turnout rates in [ 4 ], which also tests the effect of non-governmental ballot secrecy GOTV appeals on recently registered nonvoters (which are defined similarly) in states other than Mississippi in the same general election in 2014. Whereas the state-specific baseline turnout rates in the experiment by [ 4 ] range from 10% to 23%, the control group turnout rate in this study unusually low at 1.4%.…”

“…Second, we assess differences in state-specific political contexts during the 2014 general election to explore possible contextual factors that may explain why subjects’ untreated and treated average turnout rates appear virtually identical during the 2014 general election in Mississippi and appear to be different across the six states in [ 4 ]. One possible explanation is that subjects may be more difficult to mobilize if treated during elections with no competitive or controversial contests.…”

“…To date, there are two field experiments that provide precise evidence that such treatments, which encourage individuals to vote and communicate assurances about ballot secrecy protections, are effective at increasing turnout among recently registered nonvoters regardless of whether the appeal is sent by an official governmental source [ 2 ] or by a non-governmental and non-partisan source [ 4 ]. The first of these studies reports findings from a field experiment conducted in Connecticut in 2010, in which sending a letter from the Secretary of State providing information about ballot secrecy protections increases participation levels among registered nonvoters by about 3.8 percentage points (p<.01, two-tailed; n = 69,488) when compared to registered nonvoters in a placebo condition that is sent, from the same source, election-related mail that does not address ballot secrecy concerns [ 2 ].…”

“…The first of these studies reports findings from a field experiment conducted in Connecticut in 2010, in which sending a letter from the Secretary of State providing information about ballot secrecy protections increases participation levels among registered nonvoters by about 3.8 percentage points (p<.01, two-tailed; n = 69,488) when compared to registered nonvoters in a placebo condition that is sent, from the same source, election-related mail that does not address ballot secrecy concerns [ 2 ]. The second study examines whether nearly identical ballot secrecy treatments are effective at increasing turnout levels when sent from a non-governmental source [ 4 ]. Analyzing data from a large field experiment targeting recently registered nonvoters in six states (Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Michigan, North Carolina, and Texas).…”

“…Analyzing data from a large field experiment targeting recently registered nonvoters in six states (Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Michigan, North Carolina, and Texas). in the 2014 general election, the authors of that study report that sending the ballot secrecy treatment mailing increases turnout levels by about 1 percentage point among registered nonvoters (p<.01, two-tailed; n = 281,929) when compared to a control group that was sent no mailing [ 4 ]. (In addition, an earlier study by [ 5 ] also offers suggestive evidence of positive effects when the appeal is sent from a non-governmental source, but this study was statistically underpowered to detect small effects.)…”