Nonlinear Dynamics of Crime and Violence in Urban Settings

Fonoberova, Maria; Fonoberov, Vladimir A.; Mezić, Igor; Mezić, Jadranka; Brantingham, P. Jeffrey

doi:10.18564/jasss.1921

Cited by 44 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 24 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The importance of this model is to provide a tool to understand one of the edges that characterize social protest, which adds to other efforts made [9][10][11]13] to describe this phenomenon from other points of view. Undoubtedly, to understand this phenomenon in depth it is possible to establish more parameters that determine unhappiness, such as emotional, cultural, or other factors, which allows for more realistic approaches to the cost of making the model more complex, which will be addressed in future works.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The use of variations of the model proposed by Epstein [8] has allowed describing different scenarios of social unrest, such as workers' protests due to wage inequality [9], propagation and persistence of criminal activity in the population [10], or cases of civil war between ethnic groups due to their geographical distribution [11]. Moreover, authors have worked on variants of the Epstein model [8] that have led to increasing the complexity of the dynamics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Influence of Money Distribution on Civil Violence Model

2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We study the influence of money distribution on the dynamics of Epstein's model of civil violence. For this, we condition the hardship parameter distributed according to the distribution of money, which is a local parameter that determines the dynamics of the model of civil violence. Our experiments show that the number of outbursts of protest and the number of agents participating in them decrease when the distribution of money guarantees that there are no agents without money in the system as a consequence of saving. This reduces social protests and the system shows a phase transition of the second order for a critical saving parameter. These results also show three characteristic regimes that depend on the savings in the system, which account for emerging phenomena associated with the saving levels of the system and define scales of development characteristic of social conflicts understood as a complex system. The importance of this model is to provide a tool to understand one of the edges that characterize social protest, which describes this phenomenon from the sociophysics and complex systems.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Money Distribution on Civil Violence Model

2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This rule leads to dynamics in which local crime hotspots attract police action, thus reflecting the modern problem-oriented policing law enforcement strategies. For more information on roots of the model in criminology theory see [2]. In general, citizens are less likely to engage in violence as the local ratio between number of LEO's and active citizens increases due to a fear of being identified and incarcerated.…”

Section: Summary Of the Agent-based Model Of Civil Violence / Criminamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In [2] we performed analysis of data on crime and violence for 5,660 U.S. cities over the period of [2005][2006][2007][2008][2009] and uncovered the following trends: 1) The proportion of law enforcement officers required to maintain a steady low level of criminal activity increases with the size of the population of the city; 2) The number of criminal/violent events per 1,000 inhabitants of a city shows non-monotonic behavior with size of the population. We find strong dependence on size of the population, which leads to partially irrational behavior on the part of citizens.…”

Section: Nonlinear Dynamics Of Crime and Violence In Urban Settingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

MetaModel Analysis for Agent-Based Models: Scales, Uncertainty, Data Analysis

Fonoberova¹,

Fonoberov²,

Mezić³

et al. 2011

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The public reportmg burd en for th1s collection of mform ation is estimated to average 1 hour per response. includmg the tim e for rev>ewing instruct>ons. searclhing exi sting data so urces. gathering and mmnta1mng the data needed . and co mpleting and rev1ew 1 ng the collection of 1nforma t1 on. Send co mments regarding th1s burden est1m ate or any other aspect o fth1s collection of mformat1on . 1nclud1 ng suggesti ons for reduc1 ng the burden. to the Department of De fense. ExecutiV e Serv1ce D>rectorate (0704 -0 188) Respo ndents should be aware that notwithstanding any other prov1 s1 on of law. no person shall be sub;ect to any penalty for falling to comply w1th a collect> on of 1 nform at1on if 1 t does not display a currently v alid OMB co ntrol number PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ORGANIZATION. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY)12. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED (From-To) SPONSOR/MONITOR'S REPORTArlington, VA 22203 NUMBER(S)AFRL-OSR-VA-TR-20 12-0257 DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENTDistribution A -Approved for Public Release SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES ABSTRACTAn agent-based model of civil violenc e/criminal activity was developed. The agent based model was found to be in good agreement with FBI data on crime and violence in 5660 U.S. cities. In particular, the proportion oflaw enforcement officers required to maintain a steady low level of criminal activity w as found to increase with the size of the population. Reducing the number oflaw enforcement officers below a critical level can rapidly increase the incidence of violent/criminal activity. Application of global sensitivity analysis to the agent-based model identified the law enforcement officer vision as the most significant parameter. A method to speed-up the model evaluation was developed by employing stochastic differential equations. Jailed citizens and active citizens served as two coarse variables in the reduced model. The effect of preferential gathering sites attracting active citizens was studied. It was found that increased density of citizens around the gathering cites leads to increased violence/criminal activity in the city. The effect of citizen's remote vision via a small world network was also studied. It w as found that local vision is more important in creating outbursts of activity than the possibility of being connected to long-distance neighbors. 1S. SUBJECT TERMS AbstractAn agent-based model of civil violence / criminal activity was proposed and validated. The analysis of data on crime and violence for 5,660 U.S. cities over the period of 2005-2009 was performed and the following trends were uncovered. The proportion of law enforcement officers required to maintain a steady low level of criminal activity increases with the size of the population of the city. The number of criminal/violent events per 1,000 inhabitants of a city shows non-monotonic behavior with size of the population. The strong dependence on size of the population was found, which leads to partially irrational behavior on the part of citizens. The nature of v...

show abstract

“…This model (herein referred as Epstein's model) describes many features of large-scale violence processes in societies, and has been adapted and extended by other authors to study conflict phenomena such as worker protest [3], urban crime [4], and the effects of legitimacy feedback and 'news' influence on the dynamics of civil violence [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the decision rule in Epstein's Agent-Based model of civil violence

Lemos

Lopes

Coelho

2015

2015 Third World Conference on Complex Systems (WCCS)

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this work we present an analysis of the theoretical foundations and underlying mechanisms modelled by the decision rule in Epstein's Agent-Based model of civil violence and the associated arrest probability function, by considering related areas of research, such as ethology, predator-prey systems, detection theory and threshold models of binary decision with external influences. We determined the conditions for the occurrence of cascades and large bursts of rebellion in terms of the analytical form of the probability distributions of grievance and net risk perception for two different arrest probability functions using Mathematica, and confirmed their validity via an Agent-Based model implemented in NetLogo. It was shown that cascades and large rebellion peaks occur if the arrest probability function leads to a mechanism of 'massive threshold lowering' of the risk perception when the deterrence level falls below a critical value. We also derived general conditions for the stability of the solutions and discussed their practical implications.

show abstract

Nonlinear Dynamics of Crime and Violence in Urban Settings

Cited by 44 publications

References 24 publications

Influence of Money Distribution on Civil Violence Model

Influence of Money Distribution on Civil Violence Model

MetaModel Analysis for Agent-Based Models: Scales, Uncertainty, Data Analysis

Analysis of the decision rule in Epstein's Agent-Based model of civil violence

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About