2014
DOI: 10.1515/jssi-2014-0411
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Nonlinear Dynamics of International Gold Prices: Conditional Heteroskedasticity or Chaos?

Abstract: Taking the special nonlinear characteristics of the domestic and international gold price into account, this paper systematically analyzed its nonlinearity by the methods of BDS test, R/S analysis and improved largest Lyapunov exponent. We find three main results: (1) ARMA-GARCH model could adequately explain the linear and nonlinear dependence of gold price series; (2) long-memory does not exist anymore in price series explained by ARMA-GARCH model; (3) chaos phenomenon which is sensitive to the initial value… Show more

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Cited by 1 publication
(2 citation statements)
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“…Gold AU9995 refers to gold with a purity above 99.95% (Huang, Yu, & Ban, 2014). Its spot trading has been active, and it has been the settlement for gold futures in major future exchanges in China and abroad (Huang et al, 2014).…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…Gold AU9995 refers to gold with a purity above 99.95% (Huang, Yu, & Ban, 2014). Its spot trading has been active, and it has been the settlement for gold futures in major future exchanges in China and abroad (Huang et al, 2014).…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Gold AU9995 refers to gold with a purity above 99.95% (Huang, Yu, & Ban, 2014). Its spot trading has been active, and it has been the settlement for gold futures in major future exchanges in China and abroad (Huang et al, 2014). The EPU index that we employ is originally constructed by Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016), which is a good proxy for the EPU level.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%